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Mesoscale Discussion 724
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR W TX...TRANS-PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU
   REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231902Z - 232030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
   CONCHO RIVER VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTN
   AS REMAINING CINH DIMINISHES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A TSTM
   COMPLEX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA REGION IN MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS
   /UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEW POINTS/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE/STRONG
   BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN TO
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
   TIME...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
   EVENTUALLY BOWING SEGMENTS.

   FARTHER W...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS JEFF DAVIS AND REEVES COUNTIES IN FAR W TX
   THIS AFTN IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/SVR GUSTS
   GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW
   PRIOR TO 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.

   ..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29830238 29690269 29170301 29040325 29270370 29470407
               29730436 30090451 30550456 30980432 31200414 31610374
               32100315 32390210 32580162 32690072 32029993 31029963
               29759972 29339982 28629989 28450028 28970059 29370092
               29790149 29850183 29830238 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2015
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