MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OK...NRN TX...SMALL PART OF EXTREME
   W-CENTRAL AR.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249...
   
   VALID 060700Z - 060900Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249
   CONTINUES.
   
   BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUES GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY FROM W-CENTRAL OK ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL OK S AND
   SW OF OKC AREA...NEAR CSM-PVJ LINE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO
   STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND MOVE ESEWD TO SEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS
   WW...WITH HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM
   FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 630Z FROM S OF SPS EWD ALONG OR JUST S OF RED
   RIVER TO SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK...THEN EWD OVER SRN AR.  THIS FRONT
   IS FCST TO DRIFT NWD OVER SRN TIER OK COUNTIES...OVERLAID BY BROAD
   PLUME OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   WRN BRANCH OF 40-50 KT LLJ.  LLJ IS FCST TO VEER CONSIDERABLY
   THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING TO SHIFT GREATEST
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEWD TOWARD ERN AREAS OF WW.  MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS SFC TO ABOUT
   750 MB...EXTENDING UPWARD INTO LOWER PORTIONS OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   AIR MASS...AND UNDERLYING 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
   RESULTING ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...AMIDST 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR MAGNITUDE...WILL SUPPORT STORMS WELL-ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO POSE
   LARGE HAIL HAZARD MAINLY N OF WARM FRONT.
   
   SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PORTIONS
   N-CENTRAL TX.  SFC-BASED AND DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION W AND SW
   OF METROPLEX HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND
   PRESENCE OF LARGE AREAS OF A.P. ON LOW-ELEVATION REFLECTIVITY
   IMAGERY IN THIS REGION INDICATE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING MLCINH. 
   NO SIGNIFICANT SFC BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT TO FORCE CONVECTIVE PARCELS
   THROUGH THAT CAP...AND NO ROBUST BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ABOVE SFC AND
   ALONG/S OF SFC WARM FRONT.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH ROGUE ELEVATED
   CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY...PRIND POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED SUCH THAT WW CAN BE
   DISCONTINUED SOON FROM METROPLEX AREA SWD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/06/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34209877 35459909 35199798 35119755 35109486 35319404
               34869440 34489447 34499500 34229499 34219514 33919514
               33899529 33229529 34209877