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Mesoscale Discussion 724
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270717Z - 270945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS NEAR JCT...ALONG TRAILING END OF OTHERWISE
   WEAKENING/NON-SVR MCS MAY OFFER SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   GUSTS WHILE MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF I-10 TOWARD
   ERV/SAT AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...WEAKENING QLCS IS EVIDENT ATTM WITH LEADING GUST FRONT
   ARCHING FROM ERN PORTIONS DAL AREA SSWWD ACROSS BELL COUNTY THEN WWD
   OVER LLANO/MASON COUNTIES...MOVING GENERALLY SEWD 30 KT.  MOST OF
   THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND/OR REMAIN BELOW SVR LEVELS AS
   IT MOVES INTO AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY ALTERED BY EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX FROM YESTERDAY.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OLDER CONVECTION ARCS
   ACROSS EXTREME E TX AND MID/UPPER TX COASTAL AREA...TO BETWEEN
   COT-LRD...AND APPEARS TO BE RETREATING NWWD 5-10 KT.

   AS LATTER BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE SHALLOW...AND FOR ANOTHER FEW
   HOURS...AXIS OF BROAD LLJ SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP WILL CONTINUE TO
   EXTEND FROM NERN MEX NWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX THEN NNEWD OVER
   N-CENTRAL TX.  INITIAL 40-50 KT LLJ MAX SHOULD UNDERGO GRADUAL
   WEAKENING/VEERING WITH TIME OVER S-CENTRAL TX...BUT STILL WILL SERVE
   TO
   1. ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR CONVECTION NOT UNDERCUT BY
   FRESH MCS OUTFLOW...AND
   2. TRANSPORT MARITIME/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM S OF OLD OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.

   THESE PROCESSES MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN TAIL-END CONVECTION ON MARGINS
   OF SVR LEVELS...DESPITE ITS IMPENDING ENCOUNTER WITH RELATIVELY
   LOW-THETAE POCKET OF SFC AIR NOW EVIDENT W-N OF SAT BETWEEN SFC
   MOIST AXES.  MODIFIED RR SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND
   MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...WITH AROUND 35 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE.
    COUNTERBALANCING FACTOR WILL BE GRADUAL INCREASE IN SBCINH WITH
   TIME BETWEEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE LOCATION AND COASTAL
   BOUNDARY...WHEREUPON CINH WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AMIDST MID-70S SFC
   DEW POINTS.  AS SUCH...INTERMITTENT STG TO MRGL-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL
   ARE POSSIBLE...AND IF CONVECTION SURVIVES TO APCH SRN BOUNDARY...IT
   MAY RE-STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY.

   ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30329998 30689945 30289806 29839730 28839742 28539860
               30329998 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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