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Mesoscale Discussion 724
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

   VALID 250833Z - 250930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...POSING A RISK FOR
   GENERALLY SMALL HAIL. STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL IS BECOMING CONFINED TO
   SRN PARTS OF WW 209 AND AREAS FARTHER W...AND WW 209 SHOULD BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 10Z.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD ACROSS PARTS
   OF SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB -- WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ABOVE A STATICALLY STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...SUCH THAT SFC COOLING HAS BEEN THE RESULT OF NOCTURNAL
   DIABATIC EFFECTS AND ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE PROCESSING. THE LNX/UEX
   VWPS IMPLY GENERALLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER -- THOUGH SUFFICIENT FOR
   OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EWD/ESEWD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE LIMITED
   BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL. AN
   INSTANCE OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..COHEN.. 05/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40800164 41009974 40949860 40279838 40079958 40190148
               40520188 40800164 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2016
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