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Mesoscale Discussion 725
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0919 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271419Z - 271515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SERN TX...DEVELOPING EWD INTO PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SWRN LA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO
   THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE SVR WIND RISK BEING THE
   PRIMARY THREAT.  WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION.

   DISCUSSION...MORNING MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWED A LONG-LIVED AND WELL-DEFINED MCS ADVANCING EWD THROUGH FAR
   EAST AND SERN TX /EAST OF HOU AND GLS/...WITH THE SRN EXTENT MOVING
   TOWARD LA.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QLCS STRUCTURE ALONG THE LEADING
   EDGE OF THIS MCS FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL TX TO OFF THE HOU/GLS COASTAL
   AREA.  HGX VWP DATA INDICATED STRONG NWLY WINDS /40-50 KT/ AT
   0.5-1.5 KM AGL WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE QLCS MAINTAINING
   A MOIST ENVIRONMENT INTO LA...WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.6 INCH. 
   VERTICALLY-VEERING WINDS ALONG AND E OF THE QLCS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION...
   WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG NWLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
   SUPPORTING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  MEANWHILE...SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF
   10-20 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO THREAT...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY
   WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2-KM AGL EAST OF THE QLCS WOULD SUGGEST A LOWER
   TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

   DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING PER VISIBLE IMAGERY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION MAINTAINING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR BOTH
   NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AS WELL AS...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR THE QLCS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING
   INTO THE AFTERNOON.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   28899466 29969438 30479433 31819379 31769266 31209214
               29899164 29079167 29229349 28899466 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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