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Mesoscale Discussion 725
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251917Z - 252115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
   SOUTHERN/WESTERN WISCONSIN...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
   HAS PROGRESSED NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  AS THIS
   FEATURE CONTINUES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 22-23Z. 
   30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE ALREADY
   BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 

   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT MODEST IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN
   EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...EAST THROUGH NORTH OF MADISON INTO
   AREAS BETWEEN LA CROSSE AND EAU CLAIRE...COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE THE
   FOCUS AND SUPPORT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS STORMS CROSS IT. 
   OTHERWISE...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS SEEM THE MORE GENERAL
   SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AT
   LEAST A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   42889112 45109153 45538959 44538921 43528825 42588894
               42269009 42469091 42889112 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2016
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