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Mesoscale Discussion 726
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232204Z - 240030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
   MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING
   ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK. ONE OR
   MORE WATCH ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT
   ALSO LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
   EXPIRE AT 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
   VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. CLOUD BREAKS AND MODERATE
   HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER
   80S IN SOME LOCATIONS...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER
   PRECIPITATION LOADING-RELATED DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. A 55 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT
   TEMPLE TX IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH OTHER 40+ KT MEASURED WIND GUSTS
   NOTED IN NEARBY OBSERVATIONS.

   MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
   PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL 
   /SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 22Z. A TROPICAL-TYPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
   BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LCL/S EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
   FRINGES OF THIS SQUALL LINE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS
   EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF NORTH TX.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35209810 35959764 36219691 35629608 32619620 30899796
               31339845 32069901 33159946 33540042 34480092 34799982
               35209810 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2015
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