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Mesoscale Discussion 726
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN...CENTRAL AND SWRN PA/NRN AND ERN
   WV/PARTS OF WRN AND NRN VA/NRN MD/SRN NY/NWRN NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271743Z - 271845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   CENTRAL PA TO WV...WRN MD AND WRN VA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
   E/SEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HAIL AND
   STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA INTO
   PART OF SRN NY AND NWRN NJ.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS SINCE THIS MORNING SHOWED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURN PERSISTING FROM W-E WITHIN A WLY 850 MB FLOW REGIME ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH OVER
   THE HUDSON VALLEY/ERN NY AND THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IN WRN NEW
   ENGLAND. DESPITE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6 C PER
   KM/...STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA COMBINED
   WITH THE MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/.  HOWEVER...SOME COOLING AT 500 MB
   ATTENDANT TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM SWRN ONTARIO/LAKE
   ERIE REGION COULD AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.

   STORMS FORMED FAIRLY QUICKLY SINCE 16-1630Z FROM NWRN PA TO SERN OH
   AND WV WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARING TO BE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A CORRIDOR
   OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM OH INTO NRN PA...AND WLY
   UPSLOPE FLOW.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAKER WITH WRN EXTENT
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN WRN PA TO WV/WRN VA RESULTING IN
   PULSE-TYPE STORMS.  MEANWHILE...THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS REGION FROM
   CENTRAL/ERN PA INTO SRN NY AND PARTS OF NJ ARE LOCATED CLOSER TO
   STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP SHEAR FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF
   ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...EITHER IN THE FORM OF LINES AND/OR
   DISCRETE CELLS.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39987577 39647652 38837839 38517905 38278001 38568081
               38868119 39258129 40038066 40587997 41147917 42117799
               42457729 42387626 42167527 41307461 40537489 39987577 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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