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Mesoscale Discussion 727
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW THROUGH N CNTRL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
   DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251952Z - 252045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
   NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED...AND IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
   THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
   UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS HAS BEEN AIDED
   BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH
   IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS
   OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 23-00Z.  WITHIN BROAD
   WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING...INSOLATION...BENEATH SEASONABLY COLD AIR
   ALOFT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS IS
   DESPITE SOMEWHAT MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

   COMPLICATING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
   ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT...WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   POSSESSING A SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT...AND GENERALLY
   WEAK...LIMITING SHEAR.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING
   FOR ASCENT...A GRADUAL UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH COULD LEAD TO THE
   EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  IF
   THIS OCCURS...CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING OR
   EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS COULD BECOME MORE COMMON...IN ADDITION TO
   THE CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
   CYS...

   LAT...LON   41540230 42100130 43080078 43590116 44750010 45069922
               44159782 42679810 41669873 41009956 40330087 40520234
               41130261 41540230 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2016
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