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Mesoscale Discussion 727
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF WRN LONG ISLAND/NRN
   NJ/WRN VT/WRN MA/WRN CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271902Z - 272000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS ERN NY/NRN
   NJ INTO PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW TSTMS HAD
   DEVELOPED OVER NRN UPSTATE NY IN NRN ESSEX AND SRN FRANKLIN
   COUNTIES.  WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG A
   SURFACE TROUGH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A FEW
   SHOWERS OVER FAR ERN AND SERN NY...AND AN ISOLATED STORM LOCATED 40
   W ALB.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...INSTABILITY IS
   WEAKER /500-1200 J PER KG/ ACROSS ERN NY/NRN NJ INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND
   AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W/SW INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THIS LATTER FACTOR AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE LIMITING GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT/
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THUS FAR.

   LAST SEVERAL RUNS /12-16Z/ OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORM
   COVERAGE MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED ACROSS ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND
   AS DEPICTED BY ONGOING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY.  THE EXCEPTION
   SHOULD BE ACROSS SERN NY INTO PARTS OF NJ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
   STORMS MOVE INTO THIS REGION FROM PA.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   44697440 44647363 44257310 42677293 41557290 40887348
               40677388 40827435 41397447 42417455 44167455 44697440 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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