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Mesoscale Discussion 727
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

   VALID 232211Z - 240015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS/LARGE HAIL REPORTS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 195. THE THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS FAR
   ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM
   A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENCED BY SFC PRES FALLS ACROSS THE
   REGION/ AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION HAS BEEN
   SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS /WITH A SERIES OF CLUSTERS...LINE SEGMENTS...AND
   TRANSIENT DISCRETE CELLS/ WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
   UNI-DIRECTIONAL/SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME VEER-BACK
   NATURE TO THESE PROFILES. NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SELY SFC FLOW HAS
   SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200
   M2/S2 /WITNESSED IN KPUX VWP DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. IN
   COMBINATION WITH FURTHER INSOLATION PROMOTING MLCAPE UP TO APPROX
   1000 J/KG...THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OFFER A
   THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
   REPORTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
   EVENING...AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS...IN RESPONSE TO
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DEPARTING TO THE NNE.
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOIST SELY FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

   ..PICCA.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40380463 40830455 40910363 40930273 40910244 38900225
               37200213 37070221 37060246 37060375 37140403 38800448
               40380463 

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