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Mesoscale Discussion 728
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SD INTO SRN AND ERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271914Z - 272115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL ARE LIKELY THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT A WATCH IS UNLIKELY DUE TO SPARSE COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF A NWLY FRONTAL SURGE WITH WEAK WINDS AHEAD. EARLIER
   CLOUD DEBRIS CONTINUES TO CLEAR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE ADDITIONAL
   HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATE PROFILES. STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO EVOLVE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WITH
   HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   AND AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT HODOGRAPHS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST WLY
   FLOW ALOFT AND ATOP WEAK LOW-LEVELS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR SWD MOVING
   CELLS FOR MAXIMUM HAIL PRODUCTION.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44150398 45160289 46130158 46730011 46759841 46259760
               44839773 43959919 43200062 43190212 43370326 43680372
               44150398 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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