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Mesoscale Discussion 728
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

   VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
   REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
   WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
   FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
   WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
   STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
   PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
   ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
   EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
   OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
   CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
   EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
   WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
   EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
   WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

   ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
   CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
   KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
   DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
   ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
               30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
               31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2015
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