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Mesoscale Discussion 728
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0728
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

   Areas affected...southeast South Dakota...northern Iowa...southern
   Minnesota and western Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218...219...

   Valid 160713Z - 160845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218, 219

   SUMMARY...Though some threat for mainly hail persists, overall
   threat is becoming increasingly marginal. Severe thunderstorm watch
   218 is scheduled to expire at 08Z, and no additional WW is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Storms will continue within zone of isentropic ascent
   north of warm front from southeast South Dakota through southern
   Minnesota and western Wisconsin supported by a strengthening
   low-level jet and a northeast-advancing shortwave trough. Other
   storms are developing along an eastward-moving outflow boundary over
   a portion of western Iowa. Tendency has been for temperatures in the
   800-700 mb layer to gradually warm which has resulted in stronger
   convective inhibition for parcels originating at or below 850 mb.
   This suggests updrafts are probably rooted in layers above 800 mb
   where lower theta-e air is resulting in weaker updrafts. Though
   mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE are sufficient to support
   marginally severe hail, overall threat appears limited.

   ..Dial.. 05/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43539789 44109662 44809404 44319076 43259142 43029446
               42419580 42759697 42939756 43539789 

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