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Mesoscale Discussion 729
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252159Z - 252300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SVR RISK IF ANY
   ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN
   /HENCE LOW WATCH PROBABILITIES/ BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW FAR WITH A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN AND INTO CNTRL WI...DEMARCATED
   FAIRLY WELL BY THE 70 DEG F ISOTHERM. AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE TROUGH
   EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSEWD INTO S-CNTRL MN. WARM SECTOR BETWEEN
   THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES IS UNSTABLE WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS
   SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. SURFACE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
   ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE NEW CONVECTION...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
   SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
   WEAKENING TRENDS NOTED WITH THE ONGOING STORMS AND FLAT APPEARANCE
   OF THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MAY
   BE EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45579559 45909570 46079523 44929314 44299195 43619178
               43519248 43699392 44819504 45579559 

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