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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA...MS...WRN/CENTRAL/NRN AL...SRN
MIDDLE TN...NWRN GA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251...253...
VALID 061222Z - 061345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
251...253...CONTINUES.
NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF EXISTING WWS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS MS/AL SE OF ONGOING WW AREAS...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MCS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS TO MOVE SEWD INTO COUNTIES NOT PRESENTLY COVERED BY
EITHER...WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NERN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OVER REMAINING NRN PORTIONS WW 251.
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE INTO VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THAT IS FCST TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSOLATION BEGINS TO WARM SFC PARCELS.
MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE COMMON OVER PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS
IN MS/AL. MEANWHILE CAPPING EVIDENT IN 12Z JAN RAOB SHOULD BE
ERODED BY HEATING...THEN REMOVED BY FORCE OF ASCENT ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF SQUALL LINE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MOSTLY IN 40-50 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE...WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR ALIGNED DIAGONALLY TO CONVECTIVE
BAND. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
ACCOMPANYING LEWP/BOW FEATURES. ISOLATED/MRGL SVR HAIL AND BRIEF
QLCS-TYPE TORNADIC SPINUPS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...BUT FOR OVERALL
IMPACT...SECONDARY TO WIND THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 05/06/2009
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LZK...
LAT...LON 33669225 33089102 33028991 33348917 34308795 35348721
35098571 34308496 33598526 32968609 32258740 32018830
31828994 32049134 32269160 33669225
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