Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 731
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 731 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272148Z - 272245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG-MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WILL
   EXTEND INTO PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL VA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
   MTNS OF WRN VA IS PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. THIS AREA IS
   POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE MIDLEVEL
   NWLYS...SAMPLED AT AROUND 20 KT PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUT STILL
   SUFFICIENT FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT MULTICELL CLUSTERS. SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S F AMIDST STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ARE
   YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR
   WIND GUSTS. 

   TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
   MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AND NEBULOUS LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR
   ASCENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR THE PEAK WIND GUST
   THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE
   EVENING HRS. THESE FACTORS ARE LIKELY TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37657675 37107734 36817802 36707907 36757971 36918007
               37068008 37288001 37347943 37617859 37847819 37917779
               37877724 37807701 37657675 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 27, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities