|Mesoscale Discussion 731|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Areas affected...western/central ks
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 161903Z - 161930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across much
of western and central Kansas this afternoon. Large hail and
isolated tornadoes are likely, along with some damaging winds.
Tornado watch will be issued shortly.
DISCUSSION...Higher quality boundary-layer moisture is advecting
north across the central Plains early this afternoon, per
deepening/expanding cu field. Dry line should sharpen and retreat
slightly over western Kansas over the next few hours and supercells
are expected to develop beneath agitated mid-level convection
currently expanding across this region. It's not entirely clear
what is causing this mid-level convection but low-level moistening,
and cooling aloft should minimize CINH such that convection should
increase and expand northeast into the early evening hours. Very
large hail and isolated tornadoes appear likely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37130097 39159997 39589875 38989758 37229885 37130097
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