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Mesoscale Discussion 731
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

   Areas affected...western/central ks

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161903Z - 161930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across much
   of western and central Kansas this afternoon.  Large hail and
   isolated tornadoes are likely, along with some damaging winds. 
   Tornado watch will be issued shortly.

   DISCUSSION...Higher quality boundary-layer moisture is advecting
   north across the central Plains early this afternoon, per
   deepening/expanding cu field.  Dry line should sharpen and retreat
   slightly over western Kansas over the next few hours and supercells
   are expected to develop beneath agitated mid-level convection
   currently expanding across this region.  It's not entirely clear
   what is causing this mid-level convection but low-level moistening,
   and cooling aloft should minimize CINH such that convection should
   increase and expand northeast into the early evening hours.  Very
   large hail and isolated tornadoes appear likely.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37130097 39159997 39589875 38989758 37229885 37130097 

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