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Mesoscale Discussion 731
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
   TX/WESTERN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...199...

   VALID 240157Z - 240330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197...199...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK THROUGH
   MID/LATE EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
   AS WELL. TORNADO WATCHES 197 AND 199 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 09Z
   RESPECTIVELY.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE/RELATED OUTFLOW IS NOW
   GENERALLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM SOUTHWEST
   OK/WESTERN NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A MORE
   EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
   NEAR THE TULSA VICINITY AS OF 830 PM CDT/0130Z. TO THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
   TENDED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH AND/OR MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER
   THE PAST HOUR OR SO /PARTICULARLY SINCE SUNSET/ ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
   OK. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL NONETHELESS PERSISTS WITH MULTIPLE
   SCENARIOS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

   FOR ONE...TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THIS
   EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT. SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
   ALSO EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OK COINCIDENT WITH A
   MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE. TULSA WSR-88D VWP REFLECTS VERY STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 500
   M2/S2. 

   ASIDE FROM EASTERN OK...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODESTLY COOLED AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A VERY
   MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ONLY
   INTENSIFY FURTHER TONIGHT. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
   POST-PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
   HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
   HIGH PRECIPITATION/NEAR-BOUNDARY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A
   MOIST/HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
   OUTFLOW-RELATED TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

   ..GUYER.. 05/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33549950 34239951 35469732 36209635 36849574 36899482
               35849427 34919431 33899524 33159726 33119874 33549950 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2015
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