MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SC THROUGH CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061540Z - 061745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS...BUT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
   MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NC SWWD THROUGH SWRN NC AND
   NWRN SC. UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND
   RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S...BUT MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1500 J/KG. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
   DESTABILIZE NWD WITH TIME AS CLOUDS ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND AS
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS. LATEST VWP DATA INDICATE LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 30 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IN WARM
   SECTOR...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
   AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES
   AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT FARTHER NE. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THE FRONT WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE MODEST
   THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THE
   NEAR TERM SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/06/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35827706 35277867 34238188 34918243 35808085 36407998
               37297833 37027704 35827706