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Mesoscale Discussion 733
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0807 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 260107Z - 260230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WW GIVEN INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   OVER WRN PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA...IN FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS.  HOWEVER CINH WILL REMAIN STG...SO SVR THREAT REMAINS
   CONDITIONAL.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SWRN
   OK TO IRION COUNTY...WWD TO BETWEEN FST-PEQ...THEN ARCHING SWD/SSEWD
   ACROSS BREWSTER COUNTY INTO BIG BEND REGION.  DRYLINE MAY RETREAT
   SLIGHTLY NWWD THROUGH EVENING.

   THOUGH MIXED SIGNALS ARE EVIDENT REGARDING SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE
   THREATS...NARROW WINDOW APPEARS TO EXIST FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED
   SFC-BASED CONVECTION INITIATION ALONG OR JUST E OF DRYLINE...AND/OR
   TRANSITION OF ABUNDANT/SHALLOW/MIDLEVEL CONVECTION CROSSING FROM DRY
   AIR TO ITS W TO BECOME SFC-BASED.  00Z DRT RAOB SHOWED STG CAP AT
   BASE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT COMBINED WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 75
   DEG F TO SUPPORT 4000 J/KG MLCAPE.  HOWEVER...CINH SHOULD BE WEAKER
   ON HIGHER TERRAIN NW OF THERE OVER LOWER PECOS RIVER REGION...WHERE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING ALSO HAS BEEN STRONGER ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY
   OF PERSISTENT HIGH-CLOUD DECK.  ANY TSTMS THAT CAN BECOME
   SUSTAINED/MATURE BEFORE ENTERING REGIME OF STRONGER CAPPING MAY
   ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY WITH EITHER INTERNALLY GENERATED/MESOCYCLONIC
   PERTURBATION OR FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AGGREGATED COLD POOLS.
    EITHER SUPERCELLULAR OR CLUSTERED/MULTICELLULAR MODES...
   RESPECTIVELY...MAY ENABLE SUCH STORM MAINTENANCE.  HOWEVER
   ORGANIZATION NEEDS TO BE MAINTAINED LONG ENOUGH IN FACE OF SUCH
   CINH.

   DEEP SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT...AND CURRENT WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS THAT
   CURRENTLY IS KEEPING SRH SMALL ON HODOGRAPHS MAY INTENSIFY SOME IN
   NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH ONSET OF LLJ.  HOWEVER...DIABATIC COOLING ALSO
   WILL INCREASE MLCINH GRADUALLY.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   ..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29460322 29900330 31140340 31290129 31700056 30649990
               29660001 28800057 29100066 29120077 29260079 29380103
               29450109 29510125 29630123 29580132 29760140 29760172
               29780209 29870225 29840235 29750236 29720268 29490278
               29340283 29340288 29250292 29210286 29130302 28970312
               29460322 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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