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Mesoscale Discussion 733
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MUCH OF MD...SRN NJ...DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190...193...

   VALID 272239Z - 272315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   190...193...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A DMGG WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MCS
   OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY WWD INTO NRN VA. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE WITH WRN FLANK OF THE MCS ACROSS NRN VA AND MD.

   DISCUSSION...A MCS WAS QUICKLY PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS THE DELAWARE
   VALLEY AT APPROXIMATELY 25 KT...WITH CURRENT MOTION EXTRAPOLATION
   SUGGESTING IT WILL REACH COASTAL NJ/DE BY 00Z. RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS
   CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL IS NOT WELL-DEVELOPED ALONG
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS...WHICH MAY LIMIT THREAT BEYOND
   MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS OF
   50-55 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED MORE RECENTLY.

   THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE MCS
   WHERE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
   F. TSTMS WERE AFFECTING NRN PORTIONS OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA AS
   OF 2230Z. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THIS AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT FORWARD MOTION
   SOMEWHAT...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD S/EWD ACROSS NRN
   VA AND SRN MD. SVR DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
   HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39837404 39097448 38597508 38357645 38337829 38327882
               38797880 39327832 39377770 39647613 40307542 40457557
               40577491 40427439 39837404 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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