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Mesoscale Discussion 734
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN OK...WRN MO.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 260307Z - 260430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...EXTENDED WW 210 CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS NRN OK AND
   CENTRAL/ERN KS UNTIL 04Z.  TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR
   OR TWO WITH SUPERCELLS IN NERN KS AND NRN OK SECTIONS OF THIS WW. 
   ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED SOON FARTHER E ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
   KS AND WRN MO.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS ALFALFA/GARFIELD/GRANT COUNTIES OK.  INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF
   THIS STORM MAY ALLOW IT TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...GIVEN
   LLJ-EXPANDED 0-2-KM HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW. 
   STRENGTHENING MLCINH EVENTUALLY WILL OVERCOME FORCED ASCENT FROM
   LOW/MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...BUT UNTIL THEN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
   PERSIST.

   NEAR AND NE OF EXISTING/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL...LOCATED IN WABAUNSEE
   COUNTY KS AS OF 03Z...PRIND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND INTO WRN MO.  FETCH OF
   LOW-LEVEL WAA...MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL PERSIST IN CONCERT
   WITH STRENGTHENING/PEAKING SWLY LLJ...PER VWP DATA AND FCST
   SOUNDINGS.  2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD PERSIST AMIDST ONLY SLOWLY
   INCREASING MLCINH WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. 
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST 35-45 KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36189717 36209800 36439828 36789818 37359764 38109751
               38719721 39059663 39669583 40099480 39239414 38469433
               37999500 37529592 37129657 36709700 36189717 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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