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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AL THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 254...
VALID 061857Z - 062030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 254 CONTINUES.
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY FROM S CNTRL AL THROUGH CNTRL AND
NERN GA.
SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NW GA NEAR ATLANTA SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL AL.
NRN PORTION OF LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT WHILE SRN PORTION
HAS SLOWED ITS SWD PROGRESS AND IS ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW. PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR IS MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE AND 6.5-7 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO VEER
AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW AND 0-1 KM HELICITY. AS A RESULT...STORMS ON NRN END
OF LINE HAVE UNDERGONE A TEMPORARY WEAKENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO RE-INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR. THE VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD BE PARTLY THE
RESULT OF LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NE THROUGH ERN TN VALLEY REGION. AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESPOND TO THIS
FEATURE. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN 0-2 KM SHEAR COULD
STILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME
MORE DISCRETE.
..DIAL.. 05/06/2009
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 34458251 33898235 32088453 32088589 32618523 33448447
34278381 34458251
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