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Mesoscale Discussion 735
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CT...LONG ISLAND NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272305Z - 280000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL EXIST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS SRN CT INTO LONG ISLAND NY. A WW
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A BRIEF/LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   MAY ACCOMPANY A BROKEN LINE OF PERSISTENT TSTMS MOVING SWD INTO SRN
   CT...AND POSSIBLY INTO LONG ISLAND BY 01Z. OCCASIONAL MIDLEVEL
   ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED PER KOKX VELOCITY DATA ON THE TSTM MOVING
   INTO FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT. THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG A SHARP
   LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT INFLOW ENVIRONMENT INTO THESE STORMS
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR
   60 F. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOW WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
   NWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR OCCASIONAL
   STORM ROTATION...WITH THE PRIMARY ACCOMPANYING THREATS BEING HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LIMITING FACTORS PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE ARE
   ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE...THE BRIEF TEMPORAL WINDOW PRIOR TO THE LOSS
   OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAIRLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   40617335 41197354 41737353 41957337 42057296 41947260
               41847245 41607225 40797233 40617335 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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