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Mesoscale Discussion 736
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0627 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272327Z - 280100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELL STORM JUST NORTHWEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI WILL
   APPROACH THE SRN BOUNDARY OF TORNADO WATCH 192 BY 0030Z. LONGEVITY
   OF THE STORM IS UNCERTAIN BEYOND THIS TIME...BUT IF IT MAINTAINS IT
   ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS A SMALL TORNADO WATCH
   ACROSS A PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TX MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL STORM NORTHWEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI IS MOVING
   SOUTH AT AROUND 25 KT. THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
   TX IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
   SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB IN THIS REGION WHICH ALONG
   WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY
   BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
   DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPERCELL UPDRAFT...THE
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MIGHT BE A SLOW ENOUGH PROCESS TO
   ALLOW THE STORM TO SURVIVE INTO A PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TX. ANY WW
   ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27289746 26799736 26419738 26439778 27199808 27289746 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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