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Mesoscale Discussion 736
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0736
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

   Areas affected...east-central TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 220...

   Valid 162156Z - 162300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 220 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for very large to giant hail (2-3.5 inches in
   diameter) and tornadoes will increase nonlinearly (22-00Z).  A
   large/intense (EF3+ capable) tornado is possible (23-02Z) given the
   strengthening low-level shear, very large buoyancy, and the mature
   phase of a quasi-discrete supercell.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a north-south cluster of supercells
   over the eastern TX Panhandle which have moved east of the dryline. 
   OK and West TX mesonet observations show dewpoints in the 66-69
   degrees F range and temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80. 
   Very strong backing of low-level flow, perhaps partially induced by
   parent storms to the west, has enlarged the low-level hodograph size
   during the past 30 minutes from Childress County to Wheeler County
   with 2-4 mb/hour falls in the past 2 hours.  RAP forecast soundings
   show 0-1 km SRH increasing from 150 m2/s2 to 350 m2/s2 (locally
   higher and augmented by storms) during the 22-00Z period.  As the
   low-level shear continues to increase over the next couple of hours,
   expect with medium to higher confidence of a large/intense tornado
   ---potentially capable of EF3+ intensity--- evolving from supercell
   cluster in Wheeler/Gray/Collingsworth counties.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35220072 35510031 35429986 34969988 34710057 35220072 

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