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Mesoscale Discussion 737
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280012Z - 280100Z

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
   OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND CNTRL MT INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAGNITUDE
   OF THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY INCREASING
   VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF A CU FIELD ACROSS THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT...WITHIN A BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A PAC
   NW UPPER TROUGH. LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED ON A TSTM W OF
   BTM. DESPITE MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS
   OCCURRED TO YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /GENERALLY 200-500
   J/KG OF MLCAPE/...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. 50 KTS OF MIDLEVEL SWLY WINDS
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR TSTM PERSISTENCE INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL
   MT INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND INSTANCES OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A
   MORE ROBUST THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL
   BUOYANCY...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   46170852 45461179 45371263 45601331 46081368 46871310
               47221200 47561020 47550916 47370836 46170852 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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