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Mesoscale Discussion 737
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261235Z - 261430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX THIS MORNING
   MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND. WW ISSUANCE IS
   PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED CONVECTION EVOLVING WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
   REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES W OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY
   IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD WITHIN A MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME.
   THE 12Z FWD RAOB SAMPLES ABUNDANTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   CHARACTERIZED BY A LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 16.9 G/KG.
   ONLY LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR NOCTURNAL MLCINH TO
   ERODE...GIVING WAY TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY PROVIDED THE H7-H5
   LAPSE RATE OF 9 C/KM. AS SUCH...ONGOING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 20-25 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN
   THE SHORT-TERM...KEEPING THE OVERALL SVR RISK MARGINAL/ISOLATED.
   NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
   DEGREE OF BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31539829 32309755 32269632 31559625 31289677 31239776
               31539829 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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