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Mesoscale Discussion 737
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX GULF COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

   VALID 240712Z - 240845Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A QLCS MOVING NE FROM THE CORPUS
   CHRISTI METRO AREA AND E TOWARDS THE BROWNSVILLE METRO AREA. NEW WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DOWNSTREAM BUT LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...MORE INTENSE PORTIONS OF A QLCS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF
   COAST APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING NEWD FROM THE CRP METRO AREA AHEAD OF AN
   MCV CENTERED OVER MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES...WITH A MORE
   EWD-PROPAGATING COMPONENT ACROSS DEEP S TX. A 44 KT WIND GUST WAS
   MEASURED AT KCRP AND 40 KT AT KHRL IN THE PAST HOUR. THESE STRONG
   GUSTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

   WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST SHOULD
   FOSTER MERGING UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE MCV AND PERSISTENCE OF THE QLCS
   FARTHER UP THE TX COAST THIS MORNING. WITH PREDOMINATELY MERIDIONAL
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE...THE
   OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE AND SHOULD
   REMAIN SPATIALLY CONFINED NEAR THE COAST.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28449734 28749721 29229644 29589586 29599549 29379518
               29099510 28639580 27979686 26089711 25849746 25959770
               26899738 27739711 28449734 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2015
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