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Mesoscale Discussion 738
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280006Z - 280100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND
   PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN OF
   WY...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NERN WY LATER THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A SUPERCELL PROGRESSING EWD
   ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN JUST E OF WRL AS OF 00Z...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DMGG WINDS. ADDITIONAL
   TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING N/E OF THIS STORM. SFC OBS ACROSS THE
   AREA SHOW LOWER-MID 50S F DEWPOINTS DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE AIR MASS
   BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE E OF THE BIG HORN MTNS /MLCAPE
   VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG/. WEAK LOW-LEVEL ELYS VEERING TO WLY IN THE
   MIDLEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...AND
   PERHAPS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. LATEST
   HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE 22Z WRF-HRRR/ SUGGEST TSTMS
   WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HRS INTO NERN WY...WITH POSSIBLE
   COALESCENCE OF STORMS RESULTING IN A SMALL CLUSTER/LINE. DUE TO THE
   EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43800410 43620504 43350673 43500752 43610781 43920798
               44230804 44490784 44690726 44820582 44920473 44780429
               43800410 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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