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Mesoscale Discussion 738
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0905 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ILLINOIS INTO WRN INDIANA...AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF THE LWR OHIO VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261405Z - 261530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A
   MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO
   LOWER OHIO VALLEYS REMAINS RATHER STRONGLY CAPPED BY WARM MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
   CONSOLIDATED EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IS
   STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS INHIBITION AND MAINTAIN VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

   DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WESTERLY
   AMBIENT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS RATHER
   MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT.  AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   ACTIVITY IS TENDING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY. 

   LONGER TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM SEEMS LIMITED.  HOWEVER...UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS INGESTING
   LESS UNSTABLE AIR /PERHAPS BY 15Z/...40+ KT SURFACE GUSTS AND
   GENERALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST NEAR STRONGER ACTIVITY/

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   37778965 38238867 38978824 39478747 40228728 41018719
               41078549 39808558 38118739 37338871 37668942 37778965 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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