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Mesoscale Discussion 739
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1033 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KANSAS....NWRN MISSOURI...SERN NEBRASKA...SWRN
   IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261533Z - 261630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IN LINGERING STORMS IS CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A BRANCH OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...HAS BEEN WEAKENING
   THIS MORNING.  THE TENDENCY ALSO HAS BEEN FOR FLOW TO BACK FROM A
   SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS THIS OCCURS...LINGERING
   CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ABOVE CONGLOMERATE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...RECENTLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...SEEMS LIKELY TO SUBSIDE.

   NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18-19Z DOES NOT APPEAR ENTIRELY OUT OF
   THE QUESTION.  THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS ALONG
   A CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.  HOWEVER...THIS
   IS FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE NEAR TERM...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
   DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40099734 40569672 40859542 40769448 40109492 39549473
               39079408 38499442 38539608 39169657 39479747 40099734 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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