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Mesoscale Discussion 739
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME E TX...CENTRAL/NRN LA...SRN
   AR...EXTREME SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241705Z - 241900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A
   RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST/UNCAPPED AIR MASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.75
   INCHES/ IS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A LONG-LIVED LINEAR COMPLEX OF
   TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX SWD NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AREA AT
   1630Z. A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER NERN
   TX WILL LIFT NEWD THRU MID AFTN AND PROVIDE MODEST LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGES 30-35
   KTS IN THE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE
   DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100 M2/S2. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH
   THIS AFTN...FURTHER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL
   CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL HEATING AND NWD TRANSPORT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
   WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND A CONTINUED UPTICK IN TSTM
   INTENSITY WITH THE ONGOING LINEAR COMPLEX AS IT MOVES NE.
   SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   QLCS CIRCULATIONS. IN ADDITION...MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN
   ADVANCE OF THE LINE MAY ALSO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ALSO
   POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO.

   TRENDS IN TSTM INTENSITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

   ..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31049323 32039358 32539389 32849444 33169467 33739473
               34319451 34859433 35199362 35369334 35379303 35109247
               34629224 33189216 31799208 31089210 30749209 30399234
               30249262 30159290 30149309 30869329 31049323 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2015
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