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Mesoscale Discussion 740
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK...CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261808Z - 262015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LONGER TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT
   UNCERTAIN.  BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY
   TO ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE I-35/135
   CORRIDOR OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS IS
   OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...
   BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   SIZABLE CAPE.

   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...EAST OF THE DRYLINE
   ...AND SOUTHWEST OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
   MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN KANSAS...IS RATHER
   MODEST...PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LEVEL.  SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT AFTER
   ONGOING...INITIAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MITIGATED AS INCREASING OUTFLOW IMPACTS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS COULD STILL
   BECOME A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A RISK FOR
   A TORNADO OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36749850 37739874 38779835 39589773 39609599 38959531
               37349534 36279716 36749850 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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