Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 741
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 741 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241822Z - 241945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
   ISOLATED HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A FEW STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY THICKENING
   CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AHEAD OF DCVA ACCOMPANYING A CLOSED
   MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER NWRN CO. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AMIDST LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...AND COMBINED WITH
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MLCAPE
   VALUES ARE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
   OUT OF CU FIELD NEAR TAD...ALONG WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF DENVER...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST/PROGRESS
   E-NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN AND E-CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON.

   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS
   STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WLYS REMAIN POSITIONED S/E OF THE REGION
   AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY WEAK...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
   OF 25-35 KT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELL TO INTERMITTENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
   THREAT WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37070274 37100369 37600430 38380431 38750434 39900426
               40140396 40010289 39680250 39450250 38680219 37480209
               37070274 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 24, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities