MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL IN / E-CNTRL AND SRN IL / FAR SERN MO / FAR
   WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 210325Z - 210430Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FARTHER E
   OVER NRN-WRN IND SWD TO THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE REGION TONIGHT. 
   2 SEPARATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE PROPOSED.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED QLCS FROM NRN IL
   SWWD INTO SWRN AR.  A RECENTLY MEASURED 60 KT WIND GUST FROM AN ASOS
   AROUND 35 MIN AGO IN THE GREATER ST. LOUIS AREA INDICATES THIS QLCS
   IS LIKELY PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
   RIVER VALLEY.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN THIS QLCS WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT HOURS DOWNSTREAM OVER FAR SERN MO AND SRN IL...EVENTUALLY
   MOVING INTO W-CNTRL IN AND FAR WRN KY LATER TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH A
   BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
   MESOVORTEX...CURRENT THINKING IS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT/CONCERN.
   
   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   38898900 40308852 40368851 41618741 41788632 41448585
               39308673 37868769 36608875 36148995 36719106 38898900