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Mesoscale Discussion 741
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE
   EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261813Z - 262015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1-2
   HOURS...AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE. 
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
   INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
   HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
   SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  INSTABILITY IS
   VERY STRONG IN THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG
   SUGGESTIVE OF A HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED
   ACTIVITY.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME
   GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH
   TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
   EVENING.  ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS
   SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VORTICITY INGEST OF ANY ISOLATED
   UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA.

   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  GENERALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
   CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON.  SOME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LESSENED EFFECTIVE
   INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA...WITH GENERALLY HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION
   EXPECTED THAT WILL CONTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY.

   ..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34750057 36290086 37180087 37830067 38269991 38269958
               37779911 37059874 36499863 35919854 35389863 34839878
               34489927 34399982 34420017 34750057 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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