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Mesoscale Discussion 742
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
   EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
   PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
   OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
   TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
   S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
   POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
   CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
   DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
   AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
   SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
   SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
   MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
               31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2015
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