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Mesoscale Discussion 742
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280750Z - 280915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SMALL CLUSTER OF STG TSTMS BRIEFLY MAY INTENSIFY TO SVR
   LEVELS WITH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE AS IT CROSSES HOU/GLS
   AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN A
   SW-NE-ORIENTED BAND MOVING SEWD 25-30 KT OVER NWRN HARRIS COUNTY. 
   MESOBETA-SCALE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS CONFLUENCE AXIS ALIGNED
   ROUGHLY ALONG NW-SE CORRIDOR OF US-290/I-45 BETWEEN NWRN HARRIS
   COUNTY AND GLS....WITH STG ELY COMPONENT IN SFC OBS TO ITS NE AND
   SLY COMPONENT TO ITS SW...BENEATH DIFLUENT MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. 
   THIS IMPLIES CORRIDOR OF NEAR-SFC CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW THAT SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS LIFT IN PROJECTED
   PATH OF THESE TSTMS...LIKELY MAINTAINING THEM ACROSS GLS BAY
   REGION...BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS.  ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE
   OBSERVED ALONG COAST ALSO SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM MAINTENANCE. 
   MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS AND PRESENCE OF PRE-STORM ANOMALOUS
   PROPAGATION IN REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATE SHALLOW/NEAR-SFC STABLE
   LAYER...WHICH WEAKENS WITH SEWD EXTENT TOWARD COAST.  THOSE
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE INCREASING SEWD TO AROUND 1200 J/KG OVER
   IMMEDIATE COAST AS WELL...AMIDST WEAK TO MRGL DEEP SHEAR -- E.G.
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25-30 KT.  MODIFIED LDB PROFILER AND
   HGX VWP ALSO INDICATE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR COAST...RELATED
   TO SWLY LLJ.  WATER LOADING AND PERHAPS ENHANCEMENT BY REAR-INFLOW
   JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHORT-LIVED AND MRGL SVR-WIND POTENTIAL. .

   ..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29789586 30099545 29619421 29099506 29789586 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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