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Mesoscale Discussion 742
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MO...WRN KY AND TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261845Z - 262045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WATCH IS NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN
   PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO/MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  PERHAPS AIDED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING
   UPSCALE IN A CLUSTER NOW SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU.  

   LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION
   IS RATHER MODEST TO WEAK.  BUT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE GROWING
   CLUSTER OF STORMS AND A SLOW MOVING OR STALLED SEGMENT OF THE
   OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.  AS THIS...AND INFLOW OF AIR
   CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER OF 1500-3000 J/KG...CONTINUES...THE
   EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
   POSSIBLE.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT
   LEAST SOME RISK FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING...PERHAPS SEVERE...WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37088831 37238737 36518697 35838779 35798888 35948956
               36389007 36748967 36738884 37088831 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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