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Mesoscale Discussion 743
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261850Z - 262045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR
   CLL...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK.  ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND A WATCH ISSUANCE
   IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENDANT TO A SLOWLY EASTWARD-MOVING MCS JUST
   EAST OF COLLEGE STATION.  CONVECTION WITHIN THIS MCS HAS BECOME MORE
   CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
   CONTRIBUTING TO OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY.  REDEVELOPMENT OF
   MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN EARNEST ON THE WESTERN
   FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
   UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL FROM NEAR CLL TO NEAR
   GTU.  ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM NEAR HYI HAS INCREASED AND MAY ALSO
   POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. 

   WITH TIME...HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
   AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  GIVEN
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 30-40 KNOTS OF
   DEEP SHEAR...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
   REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO
   WESTERLY ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW
   LCL/S.

   ..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30449825 31069734 31589638 31849558 31779473 31289436
               30649430 29869522 29359670 29089746 29079812 29469854
               29969858 30449825 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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