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Mesoscale Discussion 743
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL MONTANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280851Z - 281045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS INCREASING IN A NARROW SWATH NORTH OF MILES
   CITY...TOWARD GLENDIVE...THROUGH 11-12Z.  WITH THE THREAT LIKELY TO
   REMAIN FAIRLY CONFINED IN AREA AND TIME...A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH
   DOES NOT SEEM NEEDED AT THIS POINT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A FOCUSED AREA OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
   BENEATH A DIVERGENT UPPER-FLOW FIELD...APPEARS TO HAVE PROVIDED
   SUPPORT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD
   TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MILES CITY AND GLENDIVE. 
   WHILE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
   DAYBREAK...LOWER-LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
   REFOCUSED IN A BAND ARCING FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
   SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVEL WARMING TO
   THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INCREASING
   INHIBITION AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

   HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS OCCURS...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /DUE TO A
   PRONOUNCED EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS BENEATH
   STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS TO AROUND 50 KT/ APPEARS
   LIKELY TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ANOTHER
   COUPLE OF HOURS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.  AFTER STEADY WEAKENING TRENDS...ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN
   CONSIDERABLE RECENT STRENGTHENING...WITH STORMS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
   BY SEVERE HAIL.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR NORTH OF MILES CITY...TOWARD THE
   GLENDIVE AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 11-12Z.  

   THEREAFTER...WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND INFLOW OF DRIER/ MORE
   STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINSHING TRENDS ONCE AGAIN AS
   ACTIVITY CROSSES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47160653 47430523 47660395 46770383 46270547 46460657
               47160653 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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