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Mesoscale Discussion 744
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN LA AND SERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 281426Z - 281530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW...MAINLY BRIEF...TORNADOES THIS
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND SERN LA INTO SERN MS. 
   LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.

   A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITH WFO/S IN THIS AREA.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY-MID MORNING SINGLE-SITE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS
   SRN-SERN LA HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATED INTERMITTENT LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATIONAL COUPLETS IN SRN-SERN LA...MAINLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
   AND/OR INTERACT WITH A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THIS
   REGION.  THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL LA /INVOF ST MARY
   PARISH/ ENEWD TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND INTO SERN MS /CLOSE TO A
   PEARL RIVER TO PERRY COUNTIES CORRIDOR/.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
   SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
   LA...WHILE SOME NWD ADVANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN MS/SWRN
   AL.  A DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NWRN GULF/LOWER
   MS VALLEY WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A VERY
   MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
   FOR MAINLY BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS THAT INTERACT
   AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...GIVEN A VORTICITY-RICH
   ENVIRONMENT AND RICH MOISTURE /PW OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES/. EFFECTIVE SRH
   OF 100-200 M2/S2 INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO
   POTENTIAL IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE FRONT...WHILE
   DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOULD LIMIT A
   LONGER-LIVED TORNADO THREAT.

   IN ADDITION...A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50 KT PER LCH WSR-88D VWP/ WITH
   THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT N-S LINE OF STORMS /NOW LOCATED FROM ACADIA
   TO ERN CAMERON PARISHES/ SHOULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29819253 30089230 30339161 30779064 31348898 31268834
               30778829 30468835 29998836 29358864 29258956 29219094
               29299151 29819253 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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