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Mesoscale Discussion 744
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261943Z - 262145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN FAR SOUTHWEST
   TEXAS WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND SOME CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY
   IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH TIME...THE HIGHER BASED
   CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE DRYLINE INTO A
   WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS AND 1500-3000
   J/KG MLCAPE.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
   THIS REGION AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX
   OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.  GIVEN THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY...40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...AND INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH EVENING...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33329897 33389927 33460016 32990063 32120112 31160191
               30530232 29980224 29710147 30019982 31879900 32659877
               33159882 33329897 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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