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Mesoscale Discussion 744
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
   OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
   IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
   INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
   PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
   ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
   MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
   MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
   WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
               41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2015
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