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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL AND EXTREME SW GA AND A PORTION OF THE FL
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071832Z - 071915Z
CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SERN AL...SWRN GA AND POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A SMALL QUASISTATIONARY MCS PERSISTS ACROSS SERN AL. VERY HEAVY RAIN
HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW HOURS.
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST 15 KT SWLY 0-2 KM FLOW
INTERSECTING THE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THAT SUBSEQUENTLY TRAIN SEWD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 15-20 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
TRANSITIONING FROM THE QUASI STEADY STATE...AND IS BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE AS
THE STORMS BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS WV
IMAGERY IMPLY LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
INCREASING OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE ERN
SEABOARD. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH SERN AL AND SWRN GA NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.
..DIAL.. 05/07/2009
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32208729 32108531 31608444 30788454 30868566 31398716
32208729
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