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Mesoscale Discussion 745
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN COLORADO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213...

   VALID 262023Z - 262230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 213 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME WITH SEVERE
   HAIL...IS WELL UNDERWAY.  TO THIS POINT...ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY
   BEEN CONFINED TO FORCING FOR ASCENT CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE. 
   HOWEVER...NEW STORMS NOW APPEAR TO BE FORMING A BIT FARTHER TO THE
   EAST...BETWEEN LIMON AND LA JUNTA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY LARGE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
   J/KG.  THIS IS GENERALLY ALONG/JUST NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE
   EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...WHICH MAY
   BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM CONSOLIDATION AND PROPAGATION INTO THE
   23-01Z TIME FRAME.  VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS STRONG AND
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER WITH
   INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
   UNTIL THEN...SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN
   STRONGER STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF
   THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE FRONT.

   ..KERR.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40060436 39660385 39790282 39870130 39230042 38380141
               37950237 37810341 37670421 38100485 39190501 40130489
               40060436 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2016
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