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Mesoscale Discussion 745
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN LA/SERN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

   VALID 281826Z - 281930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN
   LA INTO SRN MS...AND THROUGH PARTS OF SWRN-WRN AL.  GREATEST SEVERE
   WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO SERN LA INTO SERN MS WITH
   MAINLY A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
   INDICATED A FEW BANDS OF TSTMS ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WW 195 IN SERN
   LA AND SRN MS.  ADDITIONAL...MORE LOOSELY-DEFINED...BROKEN BANDS OF
   STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN SWRN-WRN AL...WHILE RADAR IMAGERY
   ALSO SHOWED DISCRETE STORMS FORMING AT TIMES OVER SERN LA AND SERN
   MS TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. TRENDS IN SINGLE-SITE RADAR IMAGERY
   INDICATED INTERMITTENT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATING COUPLETS ACROSS
   SERN LA INTO SERN MS...AND A FEW IN SWRN-WRN AL.  VERY RICH MOISTURE
   /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
   SLOW NWD MOVING BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN MS INTO SWRN AL. 
   RELATIVELY STRONGER /AROUND 30 KT/ FLOW WITHIN THE SRN AND ERN
   PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EXISTING WATCH AREA. MEANWHILE...
   EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 PERSISTS INVOF THE WSW-ENE ORIENTED
   SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT THIS
   AFTERNOON.  WEAKER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INTO WRN AL WILL LIMIT THE
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE TO THE E/NE OF WW
   195.  THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SUCH THAT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BECOME
   LESS OF A POTENTIAL THAN IS PRESENT IN THE SHORT TERM.

   ..PETERS.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   28798926 28928969 28949028 28959067 28879130 29019183
               29109200 29859172 30359134 30739081 31029051 31189003
               31488916 31948850 32318803 32118743 31538720 30548709
               30038757 29908837 29728880 29288906 29118899 28798926 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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