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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...NERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 258...
VALID 072055Z - 072200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 258 CONTINUES.
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD
TOWARDS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WITH DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
INCREASING TOWARDS 00Z.
AS 0F 2050Z...RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED A CONGLOMERATE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS SWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORCED WITHIN A
RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
AMBIENT INSTABILITY JUST S OF ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS MODEST
OWING TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...ROBUST
MOISTENING CONTINUES UPSTREAM WITH AN AXIS OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN NERN KS. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE
RAPID DESTABILIZATION INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
..GRAMS.. 05/07/2009
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40689236 39889243 39259326 38909444 39059620 39289649
40149653 40729623 41049530 40909363 40689236
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