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Mesoscale Discussion 746
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0746
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

   Areas affected...portions of southwest through north-central
   TX...central/eastern OK...south-central/southeastern KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...229...230...

   Valid 170649Z - 170745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226, 229,
   230 continues.

   SUMMARY...Watch 226 is scheduled to expire at 08Z.  Watches 229-230
   are scheduled to expire at 10Z.  All may be cleared behind the
   primary swath of convection.  Although isolated strong-severe gusts
   may extend just east of the watches, especially in OK and north TX,
   additional watches do not appear likely at this time.  Some
   county-scale extensions of existing watches may be performed locally
   as convective trends warrant.

   DISCUSSION...A swath of strong/isolated severe thunderstorms with
   several embedded bow/lewp formations and outflow-dominant
   quasi-linear structures is apparent from south-central KS across
   central OK, western parts of north-central TX, the Hill Country and
   Edwards Plateau.  Although sufficient forced ascent from associated
   cold pools may sustain this convection east of the ongoing watch
   areas, the overall organized-severe threat is expected to dwindle
   through the remainder of the overnight hours.  Objectively analyzed
   diagnostic fields suggest progressively stronger MLCINH and weaker
   MLCAPE currently exist with eastward extent, and that does not
   account for additional stabilization expected through further
   diabatic surface cooling.  As such, the severe potential will
   continue to sort itself downscale into ever-smaller nodes along the
   leading edge of the activity, becoming more localized and marginal
   with time.  Behind the line, cold advection and diabatic cooling
   together will render the air mass too stable for severe.

   ..Edwards.. 05/17/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39159686 39069606 38189590 36479587 34189636 32919652
               32009752 31139876 30770035 30690085 30890112 31120102
               31400033 31829967 32179921 32739890 33219886 33639880
               33869829 34519794 35029786 35389799 35369741 35849720
               36299745 36349811 36689800 37259740 39159686 

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