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Mesoscale Discussion 746
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN
   AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205...

   VALID 242304Z - 250100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS
   NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205
   CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY.

   DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
   SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN
   BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND
   FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK
   EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS.

   FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
   THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND
   ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE
   PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
   RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME.
   HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
   INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD
   TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND
   IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING
   NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
   ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL.

   ..GUYER.. 05/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910
               35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242 

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