MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE AR...WRN TX...NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 211247Z - 211345Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS NW AR THIS MORNING MAY
   PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH AS THEY TRACK EWD
   TOWARD WRN TN/NRN MS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS INCREASED SOME THIS MORNING
   ACROSS NW AR. AS THIS LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKS
   EWD...MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE DOWNSTREAM
   ENVIRONMENT HAS LIMITED SBCAPE DUE TO EARLY CAPPING AS INDICATED BY
   12Z BNA RAOB. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH
   20-30 KT BULK SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION AND A
   LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. AT THIS TIME...NO OBSERVED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   HAVE BEEN NOTED. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WW
   THIS MORNING.
   
   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   36399038 36578938 36548839 36238792 35618777 34918798
               34168937 34259079 34619117 36399038