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Mesoscale Discussion 747
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281920Z - 282115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG-SVR TSTM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON INVOF A SWD MOVING FRONT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.  A
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SVR WEATHER THREAT/COVERAGE
   PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
   90S/ SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY ADVANCING SWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP
   SOUTH TX HAS REDUCED INHIBITION /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z BRO
   SOUNDING/ FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  VERY RICH
   MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S AND PW OF 1.5-1.75
   INCHES/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE
   2000-2500 J PER KG/.  THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KT NWLY 500 MB WINDS AND
   SLY SURFACE WINDS IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KT
   SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL.  THESE
   FACTORS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.  THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONGER-SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH
   AT THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH THE TX/MEXICO
   BORDER BY 22-23Z.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26739934 26569870 26579825 26709764 26829724 26089700
               25849704 25769749 25949827 26379914 26739934 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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