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Mesoscale Discussion 747
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0747
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast KS...Southeast NE...Northwest MO...IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 171639Z - 171745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a
   migratory low in northeast KS, then spread into IA.  Isolated
   tornadoes are expected along with large hail and damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Exit region of strong mid-level jet is rapidly
   spreading across northeast KS late this morning.  As 90kt+ 500mb
   speed max translates into northwest MO by 18z large-scale forcing
   for ascent will shift into IA.  Mid-high level cloudiness has
   cleared nicely ahead of this feature and strong boundary-layer
   heating is observed ahead of the surface low.  Diagnostic data
   suggests surface-3km lapse rates are now in excess of 8 C/km across
   northeast KS and further steepening is expected along a corridor
   extending into IA as high clouds clear.  Latest visible satellite
   imagery suggests boundary-layer cu field is thickening immediately
   ahead of surface drying from eastern KS, arcing toward southeast NE.
   While deep convection is evolving along the trailing cold front,
   latest thinking is discrete supercells will evolve ahead of the
   front then track northeast into an increasingly buoyant air mass. 
   Isolated tornadoes are expected, along with hail and wind.

   ..Darrow/Goss.. 05/17/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39509544 40189680 42449456 41569197 39119382 39509544 

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