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Mesoscale Discussion 748
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0705 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

   VALID 250005Z - 250200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. THE THREAT
   FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO PERSISTS.

   DISCUSSION...TWO REGIMES OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROGRESSING
   EWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS AS OF 2345Z. AT PRESENT...THE
   STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER BACA AND PROWERS COS...WHERE
   SEVERAL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE PERSISTED. THE HIGHEST THREAT
   IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...AS STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR MORE
   ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE...BACKED
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THESE CELLS WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
   ON THE ORDER OF 100-150 M2/S2. THEREFORE...A TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE INTO WRN KS /ESPECIALLY SWRN PORTIONS/ OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. MOREOVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /OBSERVED IN THE 00Z
   AMA RAOB/ OVERLYING A ZONE OF ADEQUATE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN COMBINATION WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
   WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL
   THIS EVENING.

   ..PICCA.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37060188 37460268 40240254 39380032 37300067 37060188 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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