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Mesoscale Discussion 748
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND NRN WY/NERN UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 282002Z - 282200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SOMEWHAT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE
   SVR WEATHER THREAT RESULTS IN NO WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NRN UT INTO WRN/NRN WY
   COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S HAS RESULTED IN
   LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 45-55 DEGREES.  MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
   SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES /8.5-9.5 C PER KM/ HAS RESULTED IN HIGH-BASED STORMS...GIVEN
   THE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER AFOREMENTIONED DRY
   SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT.  THE GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING PRODUCT
   INDICATED COOLING TOPS OVER SWRN TO WEST-CENTRAL WY AND ONGOING
   CLOUD TOP COOLING IN NERN UT.  GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH DCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
   STRONGER-SEVERE STORMS AND THE NEED FOR A SVR TSTM WATCH.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   39431150 41421099 43131057 43931021 44760959 44900916
               44940834 44930771 44270743 43090740 40910909 40390935
               39730990 39201051 39141092 39431150 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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