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Mesoscale Discussion 749
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 282012Z - 282215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
   EXPECTED. A WATCH IS LIKELY BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE NWWD INTO CNTRL MT WHERE STRONG HEATING ALSO PERSISTS. THE
   PRESENCE OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS AMPLE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. 

   THE BEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MT
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER AND WHERE LCL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
   LOWEST. ANY SUPERCELLS FORMING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THIS
   ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO...ASSUMING OUTFLOW DOES NOT GET
   OUT OF HAND.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   44711303 47191178 49031146 48980944 48290864 47110763
               46660683 45980672 45290734 44850855 44760991 44631210
               44711303 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2014
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