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Mesoscale Discussion 750
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262325Z - 270100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SE TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN
   ISOLATED SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING MCS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD ACROSS
   SE TX. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW HAS HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
   HOUR /BASED ON THE HGX VAD/ WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
   POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT. PRIMARY SVR THREAT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX IS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS RESULTING
   FROM WATER LOADED UPDRAFTS. A FEW OF THE NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING
   ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION AS THEY
   TRACK EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO
   POSSIBLE BEFORE THESE STORMS ARE COMPLETELY UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW.
   ANOTHER LOCALIZED AREA OF GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
   MONTGOMERY/SAN JACINTO COUNTY BORDER WHERE RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A
   BOOK-END VORTEX MAY BE DEVELOPING. OVERALL...ISOLATED SVR THREAT
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 05/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29939713 30169689 30259633 30469516 30239496 30009488
               29769499 29569551 29459633 29409690 29939713 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2016
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