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Mesoscale Discussion 751
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0751
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 172024Z - 172130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 21z for portions of
   eastern IA and northwest IL.

   DISCUSSION...Buoyancy has gradually increased across eastern IA and
   northwest IL this afternoon where MLCAPE values are now on the order
   of 1000 J/kg.  CINH has decreased and thunderstorms are gradually
   maturing well ahead of strong negative-tilt short-wave trough. 
   While substantial low-level drying has surged across MO it appears
   near-60F surface dew points should hold across this region.  Severe
   threat is increasing across this region and a new tornado watch is
   warranted to account for expected supercell development.

   ..Darrow/Goss.. 05/17/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40549259 42679197 42558916 41068968 40239082 40549259 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2017
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