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Mesoscale Discussion 751
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0841 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL TO FAR
   WESTERN KY/TN AND NORTHEAST AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 205...

   VALID 250141Z - 250245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MAIN SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 205 SHOULD
   REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO
   SOUTHWEST IL THROUGH MID-EVENING INCLUDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST
   OF ST LOUIS. TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. EARLY
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TEMPORAL WATCH EXTENSION COULD BE NEEDED FOR
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEYOND 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
   RIVER ROUGHLY 30-50 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA AS 830
   PM CDT/130Z. THESE ONGOING STORMS AND OTHERS IN THIS GENERAL
   VICINITY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
   CLUSTERS/BANDS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO/WESTERN KY...SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO POSE THE MAIN SEVERE/SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS FAR
   EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE
   SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL SRH...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 200
   M2/S2 BASED ON ADJUSTED ST LOUIS/PADUCAH WSR-88V VWP DATA. THIS
   ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO
   THREAT PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME WHILE SOME
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE PARTICULARLY WITH THE
   MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SEGMENTS.

   ..GUYER.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37479054 38609069 39149040 39428908 38598863 37668863
               34788879 34378903 34949008 36789020 37479054 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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