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Mesoscale Discussion 751
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MT/NRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196...197...

   VALID 290028Z - 290200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   196...197...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
   AND ERN MT AND ADJACENT NRN WY...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS APPARENT ACROSS N CENTRAL MT ATTM.  WIND PROBABILITY WITHIN
   THE SPC 01Z OUTLOOK WILL BE INCREASED TO REFLECT THE EVOLVING SEVERE
   RISK ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NERN MT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS
   ATTM -- ONE ACROSS E CENTRAL MT AND A SECOND OVER N CENTRAL MT
   MOVING ENEWD AWAY FROM THE GTF VICINITY ATTM.  BOTH CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHERE
   ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO ERN
   AND NRN MT ATTM.  THUS...SEVERE RISK REMAINS APPARENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION.

   THE STORMS OVER N CENTRAL MT -- INVOF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND
   WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE MAIN
   UPPER TROUGH -- HAVE BECOME PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...SHOWING
   TENDENCY FOR BOTH BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. 
   ALONG WITH RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY
   INCREASE FURTHER IN THE NEAR TERM AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS IS EVIDENT.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THE
   MOST SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT
   3-4 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE DIURNALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL YIELD A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK.

   ..GOSS.. 05/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   44740957 45671059 46581128 48181081 49050896 49040342
               46480415 44290555 44740957 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2014
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