MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NORTHERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 080353Z - 080600Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEVELOP/INCREASE OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN HALF OF KS AND FAR NORTHERN OK...WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY
   RAINFALL. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 0430Z-05Z.
   
   TO THE SOUTH OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS KS...00Z
   OBSERVED RAOBS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REFLECT A RATHER MOIST/POTENTIALLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NORTH TX AND OK INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS THIS
   EVENING. 23Z/00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM LAMONT OK/NORMAN OK SAMPLED
   14.4 G/KG AND 17.5 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS RESPECTIVELY...WITH VERY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 AND 8.1 C PER KM H7-H5/ AND STRONG
   ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /3500 AND 4300 J PER KG MUCAPE/.
   
   WITH INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN
   KS /WEST OF GCK TO HLC/ PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...INITIAL DEEP
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
   INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY THE
   EAST-SOUTHEAST TRANSLATION OF IMPLIED LARGE SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY
   ACROSS EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST KS. SIMILAR TO A TREND ALREADY NOTED IN
   REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND 00Z ANALYSIS OF A WESTERN BRANCH LOW
   LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN OK/SOUTHWEST KS...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
   LLJ /50-65 KT/ OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC
   LIFT/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS.
   45-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...AMPLE VEERING THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
   LAYER...AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER
   FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH MAINLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
   WITH TIME...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY GRADUALLY
   CONSOLIDATE AND GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/FAR NORTHERN OK...AND EVENTUALLY
   INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/08/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   38800169 39890151 38870013 38909727 38099518 36379595
               37090036 38800169