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Mesoscale Discussion 753
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN MS/PARTS OF SERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291859Z - 292000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED...MAINLY BRIEF...TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MS...AND IN SERN LA /GENERALLY TO THE EAST
   OF NEW ORLEANS/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  IN
   ADDITION...LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
   WELL...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIP-LOADING RESULTING IN
   STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   DISCUSSION...GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING AND OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCTS
   COMBINED WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NNW-SSE CORRIDOR OF
   ROBUST TSTMS /SOME CLUSTERS/ EXTENDING FROM SRN INTO SERN MS AND
   ADJACENT PARTS OF SERN LA.  SINGLE-SITE RADARS IN THIS REGION
   INDICATED A FEW LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL COUPLETS...SOME LONGER-LIVED
   /SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS OF THE WSR-88D/...RECENTLY IN JEFFERSON DAVIS
   AND HANCOCK COUNTIES MS.  VAD DATA WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG
   AND EAST OF THE TSTM CORRIDOR IS INDICATING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SHEAR 15-20 KT/ FOR AN INCREASED CONCERN FOR A
   TORNADO RISK.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND IS LIMITING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...THE RELATIVELY STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
   PER MODIFIED 12Z JAN SOUNDING/ WILL SUPPORT MAINLY AN INTERMITTENT/
   BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO
   THREAT AND ENHANCED PRECIP-LOADING /PER PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES/
   RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS...SOME SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONGER
   ACTIVITY MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30559021 30959039 32039075 33029097 33499069 33798994
               32958942 31158890 30218879 30028937 29808974 30298993
               30559021 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2014
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