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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN IL INTO
WESTERN KY/SOUTHWEST INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260...262...
VALID 080446Z - 080615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
260...262...CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 260/262 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 11Z
RESPECTIVELY...WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA AND EASTERLY BRANCH OF LOW
LEVEL JET/INSTABILITY FEED ACROSS MO /30-40 KT SWLY PER REGIONAL
PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS/...ALONG WITH MESOSCALE STORM
CONSOLIDATION/ORGANIZATION...WITH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MAINLY
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT. WITH TWO
LONG-LIVED/SOUTHEAST MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVING MERGED ACROSS CENTRAL
MO...THE MOST FOCUSED/CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO AND ADJACENT
FAR SOUTHERN IL/FAR WESTERN KY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE EXISTING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL...FURTHER
SHORT TERM UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A 55 KT GUST
WAS RECENTLY MEASURED IN COLUMBIA MO /0402Z/...WITH A 54 KT AT
JEFFERSON CITY MO /0431Z/. FARTHER EAST...THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT MORE ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
MUCH OF WESTERN KY...BUT AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE A SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND THREAT NONETHELESS.
..GUYER.. 05/08/2009
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 39038918 39938802 39118687 36738733 37009166 38729326
38849075 39038918
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