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Mesoscale Discussion 754
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN WY / CO FRONT RANGE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291954Z - 292130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE
   MT/DAKOTAS BORDER ARCING SWWD INTO CNTRL WY.  A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH SERVES AS A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE DELINEATING A DRY
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CNTRL AND SRN WY FROM A MORE MOIST
   AIRMASS OVER ERN WY /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-UPPER 50S/.  STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING YIELDING NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVELS HAS
   OCCURRED ACCORDING TO A MODIFIED 12Z RIW RAOB.  AS CONVECTION
   BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NEWD FROM THE WIND RIVER RANGE
   AND INTO THE W EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE...EXPECT A GRADUAL
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION.  STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
   /30-40 KT 4-6 KM ARL/ SAMPLED BY KRIW VWP WILL SERVE TO AID IN
   STORM/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN THE FORM OF
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
   CONGEALING STORMS.  THE PROPENSITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH WITH FARTHER SWD EXTENT GIVEN WEAKER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE.  NONETHELESS...INVERTED-V
   PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A STRONGER DOWNDRAFT OR TWO CAPABLE OF A
   STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST.  

   AREAS FARTHER E AND N OVER ERN WY...GREATER MOISTURE/BUOYANCY MAY
   RESULT IN A STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE WIND THREAT.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   39840545 41070548 41800566 42550622 42740689 42240798
               42270862 43190915 44030818 44110617 44440521 43980417
               42590375 40080469 39840545 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2014
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