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Mesoscale Discussion 754
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

   VALID 250419Z - 250515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
   AT LEAST 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INCLUDING AREAS
   NEAR/WEST OF DODGE CITY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...A
   PERSISTENT DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GRAY
   COUNTY AS OF 1115 PM CDT/0415Z. WHILE OVERALL SUPERCELL INTENSITY
   MAY BE POST-PEAK AND ENVIRONMENTAL CINH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
   1-2 HOURS...SUPERCELL INTERNAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES AND RELATIVELY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER DODGE CITY WSR-88D VWP DATA COULD
   MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT TOWARD THE DODGE CITY AREA
   THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT TIME FRAME...IF NOT BEYOND.
   OTHERWISE...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE
   EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH IT LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY
   OVERTAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL.

   ..GUYER.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37920083 38120025 38239984 38039946 37159963 36960098
               37920083 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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