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Mesoscale Discussion 755
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0914 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL TX...TX HILL COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217...219...

   VALID 270214Z - 270315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   217...219...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS ACROSS WW 219...ALTHOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL
   AND/OR A TORNADO REMAINS. DIMINISHING TRENDS ACROSS WW 217 SUGGEST
   THE SVR THREAT ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTY IS NOW LOW.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF WW 217.
   ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE LONE SUPERCELL MOVING FROM EDWARDS COUNTY INTO
   REAL COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT
   WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM NOTED. 

   CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW 219 APPEARS TO
   BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
   CIRCULATIONS /LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SUPERCELL THAT WAS
   RECENTLY OVERTAKEN BY THE CLUSTER/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
   NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT. THE LINEAR TRANSITION OF THIS SYSTEM
   COUPLED WITH THE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   SOME WEAKENING OF THIS STORM CLUSTER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE
   MAY BE SOME NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WATCH EWD A BIT IF TRENDS
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A WEAKENING TREND AS
   ANTICIPATED. CURRENT STORM MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ENEWD AT 30 TO
   35 KT...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF WW 219 AROUND 0330Z.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32100120 33330059 33749976 33949811 33279730 30709815
               29309971 29940169 32100120 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2016
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