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Mesoscale Discussion 755
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS / PARTS OF EXTREME NERN
   WY AND SERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 292015Z - 292115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.  AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT SEEMS
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND MATURE.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD
   FRONT NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MT BORDER REGION.  ADEQUATELY MOIST
   LOW-LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
   IS YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2000-2500 J PER KG
   MLCAPE/ TO THE E OF THE FRONT.  A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED ON
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WRN ND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER SWRN ND AND WRN SD.
   WHILE MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FOCUSED OVER SASKATCHEWAN IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NEAR THE CNTRL
   ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND A
   DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP.  

   RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLE
   SUITE TEND TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE 21-23Z PERIOD.  ONCE STORMS
   DEVELOP...ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   A LARGE HAIL/WIND GUST RISK.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   49000338 46380394 44640498 43810445 43720254 44490153
               48990034 49000338 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2014
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