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Mesoscale Discussion 756
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...FAR ERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 250738Z - 251015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOW-END SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
   ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AMIDST SCATTERED CONVECTION
   EMANATING N FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST. OVERALL RISK FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
   WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS WITHIN A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
   TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. MODEST BUOYANCY ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS
   ACTIVITY /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED IN AREA VWP
   DATA WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /AS EVIDENCED IN
   WAYNE COUNTY MS/. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS MORNING...LOW/MID-LEVEL
   WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME VEERED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING NNE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29879013 31189011 31748956 32258917 32778874 32818818
               32668786 32418780 31928784 31628786 30798812 30368834
               29879013 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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