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Mesoscale Discussion 756
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292234Z - 300030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A NARROW
   CORRIDOR WHERE MODERATELY/STRONGLY BUOYANT AIR REMAINS LARGELY
   UNPERTURBED BY EARLIER ITERATIONS OF CONVECTION -- I.E. AREAS NORTH
   OF TAMPA BAY INTO FAR ERN PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT FAR
   SRN GA. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH UPON THIS
   REGION FROM INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA IN A WEAKLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z RAOBS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
   SFC CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA INDICATE 1000-2500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF ROBUST
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   THE MOTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON PROPAGATION
   EFFECTS OWING TO LOCALIZED COLD POOL EXPANSIONS AND LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG A W-COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
   PHASING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A DEARTH OF DEEP SHEAR
   EXISTS OWING TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 10 KT PER VAX AND TBW VWP DATA.
   AS SUCH...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED BUT MAY
   SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF VERY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
   SMALL HAIL. PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES PER GPS DATA WILL ENHANCE
   WATER LOADING TO BOLSTER THE STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL. CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER 00-01Z AS NOCTURNAL COOLING STABILIZES THE
   INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 05/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   28028265 29018267 30458427 30918425 30848332 29788255
               28778193 28028265 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2014
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