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Mesoscale Discussion 757
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN...CONCHO VALLEY...EDWARDS PLATEAU

   CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

   VALID 250817Z - 251215Z

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS TO COAHUILA
   SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD IN PARTS OF W TX THIS MORNING.
   LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY...BUT A TORNADO
   AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
   ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE...WITH AN
   EFFECTIVE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 12Z.

   DISCUSSION...FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CROSSING INTO THE TRANS-PECOS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   SURGING NW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS AIDED IN TSTM INITIATION
   SINCE 07Z ACROSS FAR W TX TO NRN COAHUILA. CAM GUIDANCE IS QUITE
   CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING TWO DISTINCT TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/NE
   FROM THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING /ALBEIT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF
   INTENSITY/. 

   THE NWRN PORTION MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED GIVEN THE DEGREE
   OF MLCIN ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE PLUME.
   BUT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST DCVA SHOULD
   SUPPORT AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL RISK OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO
   VALLEY. THE SERN PORTION SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN
   SURFACE-BASED CHARACTER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
   DEW POINTS ALREADY FROM DRT TO JCT ON S. WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT
   SAMPLED IN DFX VWP DATA AND LARGE INSTABILITY...A MORNING TORNADO
   RISK MIGHT DEVELOP DESPITE SOME DEGREE OF MLCIN. OTHERWISE...LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31730281 32050221 32340142 32440102 32340065 32040053
               31510045 30779994 30599957 30519918 30229893 29769888
               29349902 28769980 28550049 29640132 30380174 30800299
               31210324 31730281 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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