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Mesoscale Discussion 757
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN DAKOTAS...FAR NE WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198...

   VALID 292325Z - 300030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTMS...SOME SVR...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG A COLD
   FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WRN ND AND INTO FAR NW
   WY. CORRIDOR OF NARROW INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
   TO FAVOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL NOTED
   ACROSS SW ND. STORMS ACROSS ND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY
   EWD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW EWD MOTION
   -- RESULTANT FROM THE BULK SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATED PARALLEL TO THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY -- WILL RESULT IN THE COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING
   ONGOING STORMS. THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GRADUALLY
   WEAKENING STORMS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CORROBORATES THIS SCENARIO
   ACROSS ND. 

   FARTHER S ACROSS WRN SD AND FAR NERN WY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
   OR TWO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS MORE SWWD ACROSS CNTRL WY WITH THE
   BULK SHEAR VECTOR ACROSS THIS AREA ALIGNED LESS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   THAN FARTHER N. AS A RESULT...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO
   PERSIST LONGER ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
   MIXED OUT ACROSS THIS REGION....LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY AND
   STORM STRENGTH. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ONGOING
   ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   43670474 48990259 48989995 43680235 43670474 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2014
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