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Mesoscale Discussion 759
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251253Z - 251500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TSTM HAS FINALLY INTENSIFIED DOWNSTREAM OF A PERSISTENT
   SUPERCELL NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DEGREE OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING. BUT IF OBSERVATIONAL
   TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
   PARTS OF NE EDWARDS/NRN REAL COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER-LIVED
   SUPERCELL OVER SW EDWARDS/NRN KINNEY COUNTIES AS OF 1250Z. RECENT
   HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DIMINISHING THIS CONVECTION
   THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE MIDST OF PEAK MLCIN LIKELY FROM THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE TO HILL COUNTRY. WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUSTAIN
   ITSELF S OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   PERMIAN BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN. BUT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY PERSIST
   INTO MIDDAY.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29680059 30339979 30999874 30929807 30479809 29829825
               28829887 28519929 28429967 29680059 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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