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Mesoscale Discussion 759
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0917 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO PARTS OF SWRN-SRN AND CENTRAL MS AND
   SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301417Z - 301615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS...AGAIN TODAY..FOR AN ISOLATED
   /MAINLY BRIEF/ TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS SERN LA...MUCH OF SRN MS...SWRN AL AND PERHAPS THE WRN FL
   PANHANDLE.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AND A
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED INTO
   THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...TIME LAPSE OF MID-MORNING SINGLE-SITE RADARS INDICATED
   SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL COUPLETS...THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK AT
   THIS TIME...WITHIN A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS THAT HAS INCREASED IN
   INTENSITY THIS MORNING FROM SWRN MS SWD INTO SERN LA /ST HELENA TO
   TERREBONNE PARISHES/.  ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL COUPLETS...
   ALSO GENERALLY WEAK AT THIS TIME...HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN MORE
   DISCRETE STORMS TO EAST OF THIS MAIN BAND OF STORMS INTO FAR SERN MS
   AND OFFSHORE OF SWRN AL AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE.  MODIFIED
   SLIDELL 12Z SOUNDING WITH 13-14Z SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTED IN MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG
   ACROSS SERN LA AND SERN MS.  FURTHER SURFACE HEATING...ESPECIALLY
   EAST OF THE BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WILL BOOST INSTABILITY WELL INTO
   THE MODERATE TO STRONG RANGE.  

   WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND
   TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
   STORM CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NWD. 
   HOWEVER... RICH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY WITH PW
   VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.  WSR-88D VWP DATA
   INDICATED VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH GREATER BACKED
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTO SERN MS/SWRN AL FURTHER ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  THUS...WHILE A TORNADO WATCH
   IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS INTO
   THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN A MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

   ..PETERS/WEISS.. 05/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   28599147 29339118 30129102 30919088 31629106 32179094
               32759063 32798985 32008907 31608866 31248832 30808799
               29928752 29408822 28808863 28518895 28528953 28599147 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2014
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