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Mesoscale Discussion 760
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN/CNTRL SD...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301956Z - 302130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NRN SD INTO
   ERN ND AS OF 1945Z. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
   OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY RUNNING NEWD FROM W OF ABR TO S
   OF GFK. TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED
   INTO THE UPPER 80S...SUPPORTING MODERATE MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK GIVEN MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW OF
   15-30 KTS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
   EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   EXISTS FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS. 

   JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   DRAPED FROM CNTRL/NERN ND INTO WRN SD...A NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHERE SFC WINDS ARE NELY. NEAR
   SFC-BASED STORMS IN THIS ZONE HAVE A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZATION...BUT DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NRN EXTENT IS
   EXPECTED MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 05/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   48979537 48289589 47529655 46929711 46469745 45959801
               45379850 44759898 44329949 43940085 44510117 45270107
               45980064 46390028 46929964 47399917 48149834 48919728
               48989694 48979537 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2014
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