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Mesoscale Discussion 760
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0900 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251400Z - 251500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY A BOWING SEGMENT
   MOVING ACROSS NERN MS INTO NWRN AL IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS
   UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS
   A SLIGHTLY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE N/E...BUT TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL LINE SEGMENT EVOLVING
   INTO A BOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY MS...WHILE ALSO DISPLAYING A NOTABLE
   LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. THE DOWNSHEAR AIR
   MASS IS LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
   /LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   AREA...WHICH LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THIS BOWING
   SEGMENT CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   QUITE STRONG AMIDST A 30-40 KT LLJ...WHICH COULD AID IN MAINTAINING
   A THREAT INTO NWRN AL AND PERHAPS SRN MIDDLE TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35448635 34998624 34318645 33818746 33808840 33848883
               34188892 34538870 35208702 35448635 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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