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Mesoscale Discussion 760
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU / TX BIG COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270630Z - 270730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE EXPECTED COVERAGE AND
   MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SW-NE BAND OF INTENSIFYING STORMS
   FROM NEAR SJT TO 45 MI W MWL.  A RECENT 42-KT GUST WAS OBSERVED AT
   0555Z AT KSWW.  88D VAD DATA SHOW A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND
   PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND 25-40 KT H85 FLOW FROM THE S IS ACTING TO
   RETURN A MODEST INCREASE IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY AROUND THE WRN
   PERIPHERY OF TWO TSTM COMPLEXES OVER S-CNTRL TX AND SRN PORTIONS OF
   N-CNTRL TX.  PROCESSED OUTFLOW LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY IS
   LIKELY EMANATING FROM THESE COMPLEXES W AND NWWD TOWARDS THE
   DEVELOPING LOOSE BAND OF INTENSIFYING STORMS.  YET...STEEP H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES PER THE 00Z DRT AND MAF RAOBS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING
   STORMS WILL MAINTAIN VIGOR FOR SOME TIME BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE
   CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS TO THE E.  IN SUMMARY...A MARGINAL
   SEVERE-HAIL THREAT AND STRONG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31520107 33089910 33159808 32329782 30949943 30840069
               31520107 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2016
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