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Mesoscale Discussion 761
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 270714Z - 270815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST
   FOR MAINLY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE-HAIL RISK.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY FROM 0630-0700Z SHOWS THE INITIAL SURGING
   OF THE WRN END OF A TSTM BAND TO THE ESE AROUND 50 MI ESE OF AUS.  A
   VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FEATURING SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S S OF AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...FROM 55 MI S CLL TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE
   RIVER...WILL SUPPORT WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS.  KHGX VAD DATA SHOWS A
   GRADUAL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE THROUGH 9 KM WHICH
   WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  THE PROXIMITY TO HIGH THETA-E AND
   STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL CONDITIONALLY AID IN SUPPORTING STRONG
   TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES
   ESEWD TOWARDS THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO.  RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE
   HRRR SHOW THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING AS WELL.  IN SUMMARY...WATER
   LOADING IN THE MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS MAY FOSTER ISOLATED BOUTS OF
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND A MARGINALLY SEVERE-HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29789753 30309678 30459457 30099416 29599444 29389712
               29789753 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2016
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