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Mesoscale Discussion 761
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/WRN NEB/PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302012Z - 302145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME BECOMING
   STRONG-SEVERE...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN CO
   THROUGH WRN NEB INTO PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY AND JUST WEST OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   N/NEWD FROM ERN CO INTO CENTRAL SD AND ERN ND.  AT 19Z...THIS
   SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED NWD FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SERN CO
   THROUGH NRN LINCOLN COUNTY CO TO JUST WEST OF AKO...AND THEN NEWD
   THROUGH WRN NEB /EAST OF SNY THROUGH WRN CHERRY COUNTY/ INTO CENTRAL
   SD.  THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
   1000-1500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THE STRONGEST
   STORMS PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY WERE LOCATED IN WRN NEB /SERN
   SHERIDAN COUNTY AND ADJACENT SWRN CHERRY COUNTY/ WITH A COUPLE OF
   STRONGER/PERSISTENT STORMS IN NERN CO /NRN LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON
   COUNTIES/.  DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST ACROSS THESE CURRENT
   STORM AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A
   RELATIVELY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  ASIDE FROM THE
   STRONG STORM IN SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB...WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AOB
   20 KT/ IS TENDING TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH MAINLY A
   MULTICELL STORM MODE EXPECTED.  DESPITE THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR
   FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION...AMPLE MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES AND
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
   SOME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NNEWD
   FROM SRN CO...REACHING NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO WRN NEB THIS
   EVENING...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES.

   ..PETERS/WEISS.. 05/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39510367 40020379 40950339 42090279 42890229 43310173
               43840074 44089996 43859938 42690040 41660137 41060182
               40340227 39460264 39510367 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2014
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