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Mesoscale Discussion 761
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

   VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX. 
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
   SYSTEM.

   DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
   MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
   HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
   SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
   DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
   PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
   ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.  

   LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
   CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
   FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
   LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
   WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
   LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
   BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

   AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
   REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
   OK.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
   MAF...

   LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
               30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
               34869867 34989626 

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