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Mesoscale Discussion 762
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN/CNTRL MN...NWRN IA...NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 311818Z - 312015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...AND PERHAPS
   AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO...WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
   TIME...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED SPARSE
   COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1815Z...AN MCV WAS MOVING NEWD JUST TO THE WEST OF
   HURON...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW ANALYZED TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE W
   OF SIOUX FALLS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NEWD FROM THE LOW
   INTO NERN SD/WRN MN...WHILE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NOTED TO THE
   SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM SERN SD INTO SRN MN. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
   ONGOING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV...WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE
   RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN MN. 

   STRONG HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS RESULTED IN
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODERATE MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG NOTED IN RECENT OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS...BUT
   GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUBOPTIMAL
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK
   WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH STORMS NEAR...EAST...AND NORTH OF THE MCV AS
   IT TRACKS NEWD...WHERE LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SUPERCELL. LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH AN
   ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT INTERACTS
   WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

   FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MCV...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PULSE IN
   CHARACTER...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-STORM
   INTERACTIONS. 

   WW ISSUANCE IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN UPTICK IN STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

   LAT...LON   44139961 44739912 45309817 45789694 46029624 46139500
               46129410 46019309 45219321 44279362 43439432 43079477
               42849509 42639539 42409564 42289597 42279630 42269668
               42289709 42319743 42359771 42409798 42469816 42519828
               42569845 42779861 43029859 43379849 43599897 44139961 

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Page last modified: May 31, 2014
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