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Mesoscale Discussion 763
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 251722Z - 251845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE ACROSS OK OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/NRN TX BOWING
   MCS SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER.  NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF
   WW 211 NWD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A MESOLOW/COMMA HEAD ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE BOWING MCS AFFECTING TX TO BE MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS
   THE KNOX/BAYLOR CO TX VICINITY...TOWARD SWRN OK.  THE MAIN THRUST OF
   THIS BOW -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND RISK -- SHOULD
   SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS N TX AND INTO SERN OK WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...AN
   INCREASINGLY WNW-ESE PORTION OF THE BOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...N OF
   THE APEX AS THE MAIN SURGE OF THE BOW SHIFTS ENEWD FASTER THAN THE
   COMMA HEAD PROGRESSES INTO OK.  AS THIS PORTION OF THE MCS SPREADS
   INTO OK...SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE.  IN ADDITION...A ROUGHLY N-S
   WARM ADVECTION WING OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM THE COMMA HEAD NWD
   INTO THE JACKSON/KIOWA/TILLMAN CO VICINITY OF OK ATTM...WITH
   ASSOCIATED/LOCAL SEVERE RISK IN THE NEARER TERM.

   OVERALL...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER OK CHARACTERIZED
   BY A VERY MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATE PLUME...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR STORMS MOVING
   INTO/ACROSS OK TO REMAIN VIGOROUS/WELL-ORGANIZED.  WHILE PRIMARY
   RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...BRIEF/LOCAL
   TORNADO RISK IS ALSO LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE
   NNEWD-MOVING COMMA HEAD.  GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION...EXPECT WITH NEW WW
   ISSUANCE N OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 211...OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE
   EXISTING WATCH PRIOR TO 19Z.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34959936 35909948 36909909 36959642 35799536 34909591
               34879782 34959936 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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