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Mesoscale Discussion 763
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271757Z - 271900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A
   SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MCS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS TRAVERSING
   THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF
   THE CONVECTION IS UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD POOL LOCATED
   FROM 20 S LUF TO 45 NW HOU TO NEAR BAZ.  THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS
   AHEAD OF THIS MCS IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   GIVEN STRONG DESTABILIZATION /OVER 4000 J/KG MUCAPE IN WESTERN PARTS
   OF THE DISCUSSION AREA/ AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR /30-45 KNOTS/ FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION.  SOME INCIDENCES OF HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE
   MODIFIED POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ATOP THE COLD POOL REMAIN
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO 7-7.5C MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  A COUPLE OF
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN FAYETTE AND MONTGOMERY
   COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO
   WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTION THAT CAN EITHER MAINTAIN DISTANCE FROM
   THE SURGING COLD POOL OR ENCOUNTER A FAVORABLE INTERACTION ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL.  ANY WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE
   IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DEPENDENT ON FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
   LINEAR SYSTEM THROUGH THAT AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING SURFACE BASED
   INSTABILITY.

   MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONFLICTING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
   THIS SYSTEM /LIKELY DUE TO DIFFICULTIES INITIALIZING THE ONGOING
   COLD POOL OVER THE AREA/.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COMPLEX WILL
   CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...PERHAPS REACHING
   THE SABINE RIVER AND HOUSTON METRO AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. 
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE SEVERE
   THREAT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29739774 30069750 30299701 30689610 31269529 31939444
               32159384 32099297 31799255 31029255 30319293 29719383
               29239525 28829616 28849698 28939742 29179777 29739774 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2016
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