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Mesoscale Discussion 763
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 311832Z - 312030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO
   THE MID-AFTERNOON AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE OVER ERN MT. A FEW OF THESE SHOULD DEEPEN INTO SUPERCELLS
   WITH PRIMARY INITIAL RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...A LEAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY HAS AIDED EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...18Z
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED
   OVER E-CNTRL/NERN MT WITHIN A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DEW
   POINTS. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE LIMITING SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
   CNTRL MT...ANY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
   ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WARMING IS MORE ROBUST. 12Z
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS DO NOT REFLECT THE
   REALITY OF THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY MAY BE TOO
   SLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   MINIMAL INHIBITION ACROSS ERN MT...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT ONGOING
   STORMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO GGW CWA WILL INTENSIFY IN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EMANATING NEWD OFF THE
   ABSAROKA RANGE LATER. ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND PROFILE IS
   NOT OVERLY STRONG...VEERING WITH HEIGHT AS INDICATED BY GGW VWP DATA
   WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48790831 49040734 48950631 48370525 47440472 46610464
               45710523 44800684 44660787 44770833 45090860 45470849
               45630834 45820815 46610780 48260864 48790831 

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Page last modified: May 31, 2014
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