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Mesoscale Discussion 764
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...N-CNTRL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 311934Z - 312130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY
   21-22Z AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM TEMPERATURES WARMING
   THROUGH THE 70S WITHIN THE WRN PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S DEW
   POINTS ALONG THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY DEEPEN AS ROBUST INSOLATION
   CONTINUES ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
   FLOW. DESPITE THESE WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS...INCOMPLETE VWP DATA FROM
   CYS/FTG/PUX SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF 25-35 KT W/SWLYS AT 6-7 KM AGL.
   THIS SHOULD FOSTER A FEW MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE A
   GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE OCCURRENCES MAY OCCUR IS NOT
   COMPLETELY APPARENT AT THIS POINT...AND WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY
   REQUIRE MORE PRONOUNCED OBSERVATIONAL SIGNALS LATER IN THE
   AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44880470 42790399 40310358 39090368 38790497 38990538
               40560547 42550590 43270612 44300664 44800669 45100560
               44880470 

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Page last modified: May 31, 2014
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