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Mesoscale Discussion 764
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL KANSAS AND N CNTRL INTO WEST CNTRL
   OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271802Z - 271930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INITIATION OF STORMS MAY COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO BEFORE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON.  STRONGER STORMS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK
   FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...INHIBITION IS WEAKENING FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   PARCELS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STRONGER SURFACE
   HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
   KANSAS.  THIS IS CURRENTLY NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35/135
   CORRIDORS...IN ADVANCE OF AN INITIAL SOUTHEASTWARD SURGE OF COOL AIR
   INTO THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
   NOW BEGINNING TO  TURN NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS.  THIS IS ALSO TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD POOL OF COOLER
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IMPACTED BY THE LARGE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.

   WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...AND MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE UPPER SYSTEM...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
   INCREASINGLY SIZABLE CAPE /2000+ J PER KG/.  AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING
   OF 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW...NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT CYCLONIC/SOUTHWESTERLY
   500 MB FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT HAS A
   MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

   STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST IMMINENT NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
   BORDER...BETWEEN ENID AND WICHITA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-20Z. 
   THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH AND
   SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD WITH STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   35559921 36199884 37079890 38039891 38589885 39009834
               39069687 38329648 37229615 36309628 35529637 34809718
               34709856 35009920 35559921 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2016
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