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Mesoscale Discussion 765
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MN INTO NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 311953Z - 312130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL DEVELOP FROM FAR
   ERN MN INTO NWRN WI BY 20-22Z. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
   LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 1945Z...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF FAR ERN
   MN INTO NWRN WI...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   EAST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS
   LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION THUS FAR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL WEAK
   ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH STORMS IN PINE AND CHISAGO COUNTIES.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL WITH ONGOING DISCRETE CONVECTION. TSTMS MOVING OUT
   PINE/CHISAGO COUNTIES INTO NWRN WI APPEAR TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE
   OF A DEVELOPING COLD POOL...WHICH MAY FAVOR AN SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46019303 46299249 46589181 46829128 46909088 46759031
               46539013 46419008 46309011 46169021 45969028 45739058
               45449097 44999182 44699235 44519325 46019303 

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Page last modified: May 31, 2014
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