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Mesoscale Discussion 766
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251933Z - 252030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS PARTS
   OF SRN/CNTRL KS. COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT/DEEPENING
   LINE OF TOWERING CU S OF WICHITA...WITH ASSOCIATED TSTMS SLOWLY
   INTENSIFYING. SFC OBS CONFIRM THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
   QUITE WEAK INVOF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
   MAY BE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSHEAR IMPULSE MOVING INTO
   WRN OK. NEVERTHELESS...THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
   REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND COLD MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.
   DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...YIELDING
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT...WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED TSTM GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. 

   MORE UNCERTAIN IS TSTM INITIATION INTO N-CNTRL/NERN KS THIS
   AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN PRATT AND GREAT
   BEND...BUT CINH IS PROBABLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT HERE. HOWEVER...THE
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
   THIS AREA AS WELL. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT
   STORM COVERAGE...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39539760 39689641 39319583 38369598 37089620 37099661
               37069711 37049794 37219878 37919933 38989898 39539760 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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