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Mesoscale Discussion 767
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 312249Z - 010015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A
   SVR TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AMIDST AROUND 25 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS WILL AID IN LOW-LEVEL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LARGE
   HAIL -- POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT -- WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS.
   HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE
   OF CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING
   FOR ASCENT.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41180543 44610586 44920413 43720302 41760348 41180543 

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