Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 768
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 768 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312312Z - 010045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL MT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN-MT MOUNTAINS HAS
   DEVELOPED INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...N/S-ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR
   SYSTEM ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR. INFLOW AIR IS ONLY
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...PARTLY OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN MCV IN ERN MT. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF INSOLATION AMIDST
   MODESTLY RICH MOISTURE ARE ENHANCING DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS
   PARTICULARLY THE CASE IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY GREAT
   FALLS...HAVRE...AND LEWISTOWN...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
   40S/LOWER 50S AND BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT. THE
   MAIN CONCERN WITH THE ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD WILL BE MARGINALLY
   SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ENHANCING UPWARD AND DOWNWARD BUOYANCY...STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE LIMITED...KEEPING THE SVR RISK
   ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...

   LAT...LON   45231167 46341123 48341131 48801020 48410910 46790921
               45260993 45231167 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 01, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities