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Mesoscale Discussion 769
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 312328Z - 010200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS MAY SPREAD INTO WRN ND FROM ERN MT
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
   WW.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION IN ERN MT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY OF
   SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...PERHAPS CROSSING THE ND BORDER
   AROUND THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY
   SPREAD INTO NWRN ND A LITTLE EARLIER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   LONG-LIVED MCV ADVANCING NNEWD INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE AIR MASS
   IN WRN ND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F BENEATH 7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.
   THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS TO BE MAINTAINED
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 25-35 KT OF
   DEEP SHEAR. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING COULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO THIS
   RISK EXTENDING WELL EWD IN ND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF
   STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE LACK OF A STRONGER/MORE
   WIDESPREAD COLD POOL.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48340385 48820327 48020250 46420244 46070315 46540387
               48340385 

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