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Mesoscale Discussion 769
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND WRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 252208Z - 252315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
   ISSUANCE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
   BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...WHILE STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS YET TO
   MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A
   WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST GOES SUPER RAPID SCAN IMAGERY
   DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...WITH A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT/TOWERING CU NEAR OMA. WITH SOME
   INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SLOWLY APPROACHING IMPULSE TO
   THE WEST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED...AS
   ADEQUATE HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE SUPPLIED
   MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP
   FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE WEAKENING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE BACKGROUND
   WIND FIELD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF
   MARGINAL STRENGTH...STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE AMPLE
   VENTING TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST
   RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   IS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SERN NEB...POTENTIALLY IN A ZONE OF
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ANVIL DEBRIS. THEREFORE...THERE CURRENTLY
   APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS
   AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO...AND WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40669404 40069411 39459426 39329511 39499557 40159777
               40939782 42379726 42619644 42719472 42079400 40669404 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2015
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