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Mesoscale Discussion 771
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252306Z - 260100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONTINUING
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT
   AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM FAR SERN SD NEWD INTO SRN MN
   WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS THIS EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES YIELD A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THAT TO
   THE SW...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OFFERING A SUBSTANTIVELY
   STRONGER WIND FIELD. IN TURN...ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIKELY
   RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION AND LATEST
   88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS TO THE S/E OF FSD
   /WHICH HAVE PRODUCED 1-1.75 IN HAIL/. MOST LIKELY...FORCING FOR
   ASCENT FROM A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE WEST AND SOME FURTHER
   INSOLATION WILL COMBINE WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES TO YIELD MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS
   EVENING...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH...WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42679665 43449725 44119589 44499136 44038967 42949035
               42679665 

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