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Mesoscale Discussion 771
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S CNTRL THROUGH NE MISSOURI INTO W
   CNTRL ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 282009Z - 282215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 
   THIS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY WEST AND NORTH OF ST. LOUIS.

   DISCUSSION...CONVERGENCE ALONG A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
   ZONE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING A GRADUAL INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO AND THROUGH PEAK
   LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY.  THIS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI THROUGH AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN
   AREA.

   AIDED BY STEEPENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH
   INSOLATION BENEATH A NEARBY MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...MIXED
   LAYER CAPE NOW APPEARS MODERATELY LARGE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN AMBIENT
   FLOW AROUND 30-40 KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS AS STORMS
   INCREASE/INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  

   UNTIL THEN...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD
   IN STRONGER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
   LARGELY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
   THE GENERAL AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37369324 38159242 39109178 40179146 40539101 40129028
               38519101 36899258 36999338 37369324 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2016
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