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Mesoscale Discussion 771
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199...

   VALID 010007Z - 010100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED
   RISK FOR SVR STORMS FROM CONVECTION EVOLVING IN PARTS OF FAR ERN MT.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A RECENT UPTICK IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NEAR AND S OF MILES CITY TO THE WYOMING 
   BORDER -- PERHAPS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT PRECEDING A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN PER
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS. RECENT AMALGAMATIONS OF COLD POOLS COULD BREED
   ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THIS ACTIVITY
   WOULD FORWARD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS FAR ERN MT IN THE SHORT
   TERM...AIDED BY RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ESELYS ENHANCING INFLOW
   BENEATH 25-30-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS. MODIFIED 19Z GGW RAOB SUGGESTS
   1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE FOR THE INFLOW AIR. SVR WIND GUSTS --
   ENHANCED BY LARGER-SCALE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE GROWTH -- AND
   LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. THE BACKED SFC WINDS...AND
   INCREASING LLJ...MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR A TORNADO.

   ..COHEN.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45210614 46550610 47650525 47050428 45830439 45170493
               45210614 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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