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Mesoscale Discussion 772
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0832 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...ERN WY...WRN ND...WRN SD...NWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199...200...

   VALID 010132Z - 010330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   199...200...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS ONGOING WWS 199
   AND 200 IS DECREASING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND RELATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...ALONG WITH THE INITIAL
   STAGES OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...ARE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. WHILE LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION
   WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UPWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...IT WILL ONLY BE
   MODEST IN MAGNITUDE AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS WELL
   UPSTREAM. MODEST DEEP SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY 25-35 KT OF H5 FLOW MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR LINGERING STRONG STORMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   AS ISOLATED POCKETS OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY LINGER IN THE SHORT TERM --
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...PORTIONS OF THE ONGOING WATCHES MAY BE
   CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULE EXPIRATION TIMES. ADDITIONAL WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOW UNLIKELY.

   ..COHEN.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   42440527 44930604 48000627 48990504 48680370 46100348
               43040297 42190364 42440527 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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