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Mesoscale Discussion 772
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0772
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0941 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern OK...Far northwestern AR...Far southeast
   KS...West-central/southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 190241Z - 190415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...One or more downstream watches may be need across portions
   of eastern OK, far northwestern AR, far southeast KS, and
   west-central/southwest MO as the ongoing convective lines continue
   eastward.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows several convective lines
   across eastern KS and eastern/central OK. Convective trends on the
   line across eastern KS have been down over the past hour or so.
   Storms within the line may intensify briefly as a result of mergers
   and/or interaction with the warm front but the general expectation
   is for predominately sub-severe wind gusts. However, some more
   cellular development is possible ahead of the line with the overall
   environment supportive of rotating updrafts capable of severe hail.
   A watch may be needed downstream to cover these potential severe
   hazards.

   Farther south in northeast OK, ongoing supercells appear to have
   experienced upscale growth with recent radar imagery showing a more
   eastward storm motion. This developing line may eventually merge
   with the well-developed line moving across southern OK and continue
   eastward across the remainder of eastern OK and into western AR.
   Strengthening low-level flow and ample low-level moisture should
   allow for a continued severe threat. The northern extent of the
   threat is somewhat questionable given the current storm motion but
   portions of southern MO may need a watch and convective trends will
   be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38779502 39719408 38889284 34789381 34609543 38779502 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2017
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