|Mesoscale Discussion 772|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 0772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017
Areas affected...Eastern OK...Far northwestern AR...Far southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 190241Z - 190415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...One or more downstream watches may be need across portions
of eastern OK, far northwestern AR, far southeast KS, and
west-central/southwest MO as the ongoing convective lines continue
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows several convective lines
across eastern KS and eastern/central OK. Convective trends on the
line across eastern KS have been down over the past hour or so.
Storms within the line may intensify briefly as a result of mergers
and/or interaction with the warm front but the general expectation
is for predominately sub-severe wind gusts. However, some more
cellular development is possible ahead of the line with the overall
environment supportive of rotating updrafts capable of severe hail.
A watch may be needed downstream to cover these potential severe
Farther south in northeast OK, ongoing supercells appear to have
experienced upscale growth with recent radar imagery showing a more
eastward storm motion. This developing line may eventually merge
with the well-developed line moving across southern OK and continue
eastward across the remainder of eastern OK and into western AR.
Strengthening low-level flow and ample low-level moisture should
allow for a continued severe threat. The northern extent of the
threat is somewhat questionable given the current storm motion but
portions of southern MO may need a watch and convective trends will
be monitored closely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38779502 39719408 38889284 34789381 34609543 38779502
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home