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Mesoscale Discussion 773
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...

   VALID 252339Z - 260115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 213...WITH THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION ARE
   CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WW. AT PRESENT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE
   IS EVOLVING OVER FAR NERN KS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF A SOMEWHAT
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH. OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   WW...WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IS PERSISTING...POTENTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
   N/NEWD PROGRESSING MCV AND ATTENDANT SFC CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD.
   GOES 1-MIN IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
   CONVECTION IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS GENERATING
   NEW DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SUCH AN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE CELL MERGERS
   AND SOME DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL
   BE ABLE TO UTILIZE A REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH
   THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF INSOLATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS. MOREOVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN
   PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
   OF THE WIND FIELD.

   ..PICCA.. 05/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39849780 39999709 39979573 39059571 38389598 37089616
               37069779 37199826 38649835 39849780 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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