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Mesoscale Discussion 773
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010639Z - 010815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INCLUDING THE ULYSSES AREA AND HIGHWAY
   160/56 VICINITIES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /BY AROUND 08Z-09Z/.

   DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
   POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS/GREATEST HAIL POTENTIAL
   FAVORING THE WESTERN FLANKS. A 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO WARM ADVECTION JUST ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY AND
   OVERALL STORM PERSISTENCE. THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE...WITH POTENTIALLY AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE GIVEN
   PROBABLE SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SOME MOISTENING NEAR/JUST
   ABOVE THE SURFACE SINCE THE 00Z DODGE CITY OBSERVED SOUNDING PER GPS
   PW DATA/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. GIVEN STORM
   PERSISTENCE/AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...INTERPOLATING BETWEEN
   WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DODGE CITY/PUEBLO/AMARILLO WOULD SUGGEST THAT
   THERE IS AS MUCH AS 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH
   THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...WHICH WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CURRENT THINKING
   IS THAT STORM INTENSITY/ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY
   WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY
   FROM THE GREATER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38070199 38080130 37710048 37340024 37010036 37420164
               38070199 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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