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Mesoscale Discussion 774
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...NRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 011808Z - 012015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PERSISTENT EARLY DAY TSTM CLUSTER OVER CNTRL NEB APPEARS
   TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS FORMING IN CONFLUENCE BANDS TO THE S/E. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
   THE WARM SECTOR AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   SEVERE HAIL TRANSITIONING TO SEVERE WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.

   DISCUSSION...LARGELY UNORGANIZED MCS OVER CNTRL NEB TO S-CNTRL SD
   HAS APPEARED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST HALF-HOUR WITH STORM
   INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDORS TO THE S
   INTO N-CNTRL KS AND E INTO CNTRL NEB. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WHERE OVERTURNING HAS NOT YET OCCURRED...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY LIFE-CYCLE OF UPDRAFTS.

   DEEP-LAYER WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN TIME-SERIES OF KUEX VWP DATA.
   CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL LIKELY YIELD A STRENGTHENING
   COLD POOL AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEG F IN THE
   DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
   INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40180035 40790002 41799908 42439836 42539760 42319678
               41909654 40599674 39899713 39159808 39049907 39129972
               39530012 40180035 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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