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Mesoscale Discussion 774
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0830 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...N-CNTRL/CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...

   VALID 290130Z - 290230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WW 225 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z AND CAN GENERALLY BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION MAY BE
   CONSIDERED ACROSS CNTRL IL.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LINE OF
   TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SE WI SSWWD BACK INTO CNTRL IL. THE PORTION OF
   THIS LINE IN SE WI AND N-CNTRL IL HAS SHOWN EPISODIC UPDRAFT
   INTENSIFICATION...PRIMARILY AS OLDER UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH NEWER
   UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE NEWD AT 30-35 KT...TAKING IT INTO WRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 02Z /THE
   WATCH EXPIRATION TIME/. AS SUCH...THE WATCH HERE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AT 02Z. BEFORE THEN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   FARTHER S /CNTRL IL/...00Z ILX SOUNDING SAMPLED AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   WITH SBCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE
   SOUNDING IS RATHER WEAK /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 23 KT AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 25 KT/...SUGGESTING ANY STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD BE BRIEF.
   EVEN SO...SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS A RESULT OF UPDRAFT INTERACTIONS. LOCAL
   TEMPORAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA IF STORMS DO NOT BEGIN
   TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   40279092 40269046 40709044 40709000 40959000 40978967
               41218964 41248988 41608988 41588962 42208969 42238992
               42498993 42518980 43238981 43988962 43978889 43898890
               43898842 43948830 43898816 43888780 43888771 43668772
               43458785 43188791 42838781 42768775 42478781 42498819
               42158820 42148857 41628863 41618917 41098915 40918890
               40708893 40578929 40338925 40328961 40138961 40128994
               40089035 39969057 40109071 40109093 40279092 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2016
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