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Mesoscale Discussion 775
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011850Z - 012015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
   THREAT OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
   THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT MAKES WW ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT 1830Z ALONG AND
   NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM NWRN IA ENEWD INTO WRN WI.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...WITH 1000-1500 MLCAPE NOTED PER RECENT OBJECTIVE
   MESOANALYSIS. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   RESULT IN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...THOUGH STORMS
   INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED RISK OF
   AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO...IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY.
   TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE LAST HOUR
   OVER WINNEBAGO/KOSSUTH COUNTIES IN NRN IA. 

   THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IS UNCLEAR IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH
   ANY SUCH EVOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WIND. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE HAIL
   RISK. WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED
   NATURE OF THE STORMS AND EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE TORNADO
   THREAT.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42739485 42979519 43229517 43549507 43809411 43989346
               44199288 44589229 44729171 44789123 43839077 43119145
               42879220 42709326 42679431 42739485 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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