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Mesoscale Discussion 775
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...215...216...

   VALID 260105Z - 260230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   212...215...216...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA THIS EVENING AS TORNADO WATCHES
   212/215/216 CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX/FAR
   NORTHWEST LA NEAR THE SHREVEPORT LA/LUFKIN TX AREAS AS OF 745 PM
   CDT...WITH ACCELERATION LIKELY AIDED BY A REAR-INFLOW JET /PER
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...THE 00Z SHREVEPORT OBSERVED SOUNDING
   SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND 2700
   J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE HIGHLY
   ORGANIZED/BOWING NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
   WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES INTO FROM
   EAST TX INTO LA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

   OF NOTE...A WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
   SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL LA AS OF 745 PM CDT...AND IT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND INTERCEPT THE SQUALL LINE
   CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN LA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR
   STORMS TO INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THIS
   WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD BE A FACTOR FOR AN ENHANCED
   OR SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WHEN THE
   SQUALL LINE INTERCEPTS IT ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL LA THROUGH
   MID/LATE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF WIND
   DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SOME ADDITIONAL/GRADUAL FORWARD ACCELERATION OF
   THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN SEEMS
   LIKELY THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 3000+ J/KG
   MLCAPE WAS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB WITH MIDDLE 70S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
   WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
   WINDS WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE
   THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH
   LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
   IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
   COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LA.

   ..GUYER.. 05/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32659421 32909395 32859258 31189213 30409191 29899242
               29629434 28579603 28269747 28969780 30879506 31699434
               32659421 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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