MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SE OH...WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...
   
   VALID 230021Z - 230115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW
   211 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD HAVE A
   MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE
   OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND THE 02Z WATCH
   EXPIRATION.
   
   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE ERIE
   WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. SWD
   ACROSS WV...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WWD TOWARD THE
   OH RIVER WHERE NEW CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS
   CONVECTION COULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
   EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
   VALLEY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD
   INTO ERN OH WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES
   OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
   0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING
   INSTABILITY AND WW 211 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
   
   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/23/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   45027129 41417320 41407665 45027498 45027129