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Mesoscale Discussion 776
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...ERN CO...SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 011851Z - 012045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
   21Z WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
   AN MCS WITH POTENTIAL BOWING SEGMENTS REMAINS EXPECTED...YIELDING AN
   INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION HAS COMMENCED AROUND 30 SE LIC ALONG A
   SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS GENERALLY BEEN WELL-MODELED BY
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS WRN
   KS IN N/S-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BANDS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
   THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AMIDST UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW
   POINTS...AND PERHAPS ALONG A SWD-SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE
   KS/NEB BORDER. WITHIN A QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...MODERATELY STRONG BUOYANCY IS EVIDENT WITH MLCAPE OF
   2000-3000 J/KG.

   TIME-SERIES OF VWP DATA FROM KGLD HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY FOR VEER-BACK
   PROFILES IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD MCS OVER CNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...WITH
   A BELT OF STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WLYS EMANATING ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES...WIND PROFILES ARE ALREADY CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS FARTHER
   S PER 18Z DDC RAOB. RELATIVELY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
   SPREADS WILL TEND TO FAVOR OUTFLOW-DOMINATED UPDRAFTS. OVERALL SETUP
   SHOULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL
   RISK...TRANSITIONING TO SEVERE WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BOWING MCS
   THIS EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38820356 39320306 40330260 40770227 40790160 40540052
               39649934 39329897 39039842 38399823 37489878 37229965
               37199980 37270051 37800142 37980252 38230291 38820356 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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